RE:RE:End Game - NumbersWelcome aboard. Just a couple points.
- Regarding costs of 4-5K. I disagree. The PFS already has a cost of around 3,300. Using chloride will reduce this to a lower amount - not yet counting for rare earths. I have no idea where you are getting 5K from. It's not going to get more expensive.
- Regarding buyout - you are correct. No board is going to offer an 800% premium (not premier). This is why it's important to get a share price up to the $5-$6 range at minimum.
- Millenial Lithium was taken out for around 30% of their projects value EV/NPV. A similar amount on Cypress would be around $6 CAD a share.
Each project is different though - doesn't mean it's all the same. Lots of factors at play. The 4 sedimentary plays (LAC, BAC, CYP, Ioeer) etc are all very different too.
Standard lithium is at 500%+ of it's EV/NPV - others are at 50.
What's important is we are last or almost last.... just around 5%.
tiger2201 wrote: Hi yakattack,
Good analysis!
Few things I would disagree wth you. One is CYP's cost, I believe 3K is just too low, remeber it is in the US, cost is much higher than other places, I say 4k to 5k would be realistic.
The 2nd is the buyer will not pay us $9 to $10, I would be happy if they pay half of that. CYP's management needs to pump up our share price, then we may get a higher number. The fate of the company is depending on the lagest share holders, not the management, if a byer appears. The buyer pically pays 30% to 50% premier.
Did you see ML, which was sold for 20% premier, it's so shameful with ML's management, at the beginning of lithium bull market!
Became a CYP's investor recently, I see the value here.
tiger
yakattack wrote: Prices for Lithium may move up to 17-18K in the fall. We all know Bill would never use such a price for a FS... and it would have to be secure on the downside as well....so i'm guessing the FS (if we even get to one) - will be dropped 30% lower or so - maybe around 12-13K
At 13K, with 31K tonnes of hydroxide at an OPEX of 3K.... we're looking at an IRR of about 78% after 8% discount....... for a NPV of 2.2 Billion USD
For someone to buyout completely (yes, total ownership) at a value of 40-50% of the project (EV/NPV) is more than reasonable for such a project - and that's if the reserves in the mine plan stay as is - we all know it can be scaled easier with chloride.
That puts us around 7x from here in CAD terms... for 9.30-$10.20ish CAD.
Using the same valuations given to standard lithium would be well over 40 dollars......9-10 CAD is far more realistic..
To put it in perscpective.... if TSLA were to buy CYP outright for 50% of the project's value using numbers above.... it would only be about 0.15% of their market cap.... or nearly 1/7th of 1 percent...
It's waaaay overdue and far past the time for NDAs to hide behind the so called talks.... either put up or get out.
Management has a responsibility to get the share price as high as they can for shareholders - so these NDAs better not be a NDA for much longer.
AGM is approaching....