AUG-05-2021: APA EARNINGS CALL A fantastic earnings call yesterday by Apache. They did confirm their excitement about their recent appraisal well campaign of Sapakara. In turn, outlined their near term plan of move the rig north to drill Bonboni. After Bonboni, the rig will come back to the Sapakara appraisal well and perform a flow test.
Note, during th call Apache characterized the reservoir conditions at Sapakara as 'excellent', 'think pay package', "filled with black oil'.
During the Q&A, Doug Legatte (Bank of America Analyst) alluded to Sapakara - given the appraisl was ~3 miles from the original exploration well - is probably around 500 million barrels. In turn, wanted Apache to confirm the size of the Sapakara field.
Apache responded and said that it's too early to guide or comment on the size of their discoveries in Suriname. Only to say they are excited about their recent appraisal results on Sapakara and it certainly puts them a few steps forward on getting to a possible project sanction.
Apache also mentioned they will drill on Block 53 (which is directly East of Block 58) in early 2022. Apache operates block 53 and are currently sourcing a floater for that exploration campaign. They have a prospect inventory on Block 53 that is analogous and on trend to their discoveries on Block 58.
Given what was revealed during the Apache earnings call - I would probably expect Kawa, given it will test 3 independent pay zones, to be of similar size and scale to Apache's four discoveries. Around 500mmboe.
What is the size of prize in the event Kawa is successful? 500mmboe * 6.5 * .67 = US $3.2B; or US~$7/cgx share.
I would assume there may be a bit more uplift to the sp in the event Kawa is successful taking into account the other 3.5B barrels in the northern Corentyne area (mean estimate comprising two major fan systems).
The drill bit is the key catalyst here. The rest is just noise. Stay patient. Make sure you make those that have stayed on the sidelines all this time pay a steep premium for your shares.
GLTA