GREY:NEVDQ - Post by User
Comment by
bogfiton Aug 08, 2021 1:11pm
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Post# 33669603
RE:RE:Bagholder bogfit
RE:RE:Bagholder bogfit"My day job is a precious metals contrarian swing-trader."
But for the last couple of years, it was mostly in silver producers. Why? If one takes a look at March 2020 (funny how that date keeps popping up) You will see Au, Ag, & Cu all take a hit, but Ag the most.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/si00/charts?mod=mw_quote_advanced
Then, Au takes off first and raises the gold/silver ratio to its all-time high! The number of Ag oz to 1 Au oz had never before in the history of the world seen this great of disparity. Not ever, and it seemed likely that Ag would revert to the mean; and it did. Presently the ratio is near historical average, however pressure for it to rise further is likely IMO.
In Nov. 2020 (coincidence?) Cu caught up with Au, and surpassed Ag 4 months later. Now, with economic headwinds resisting recovery I’m thinking that Au is more likely to catch up this year.
The bottom line for me is the earnings leverage miners have to spot. Historically gold miners enjoy a 3:1 advantage, while during the recent metals pull back, the Ag producers I follow lost at 2.5 times the drop in Ag. (25% drop vs.10%)
I’ve never seen any data on the existence of leverage for copper miners although I’m sure it must exist at some level.
b.