GREY:VITFF - Post by User
Comment by
Gambler8888on Aug 14, 2021 9:37am
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Post# 33705913
RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:The most important thing to keep in mind
RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:The most important thing to keep in mindHello,
I respectfully disagree that all gold miners will follow from here "except in pog...and that's all miners anyways".
Both KL and VGCX reported q2 production on July 12. And since reporting q2 production on July 12, KL is +3% and VGCX is -18% (XGD is down around -4%) during same time.
I sold all my vgcx and bought kl after July 12, and on that trade I am up about +18% (+3% on my new KL shares and avoided a 15% drop on VGCX shares I sold).
Operational performance matters almost more than anything, and VGCX is in a show me mode for q3.
I am betting given the poor operational momentum from q2 that q3 will also miss and guidance will be revised down. That will result in further price pressure on vgcx, and it will further underperform KL during that time.
I agree with you that I risk a take out occurring before q3, and if that happens I will miss a long SPECULATIVE opportunity, but on a value at risk adjusted model, I can accept that because I see the risk to the downside from here over the next 3-4 months and I believe I can buy back in at a lower price after guidance is revised.
in summary though, I am a believer in the asset and i also believe anyone holding at this price right now will also be rewarded by the end of 2021, as I see the price of VGCX outperforming the TSX for Dec 31, 2021.
GLTA longs.