cgx vs. fecall the posts on the subject have something in common, they all compere on a success at kawa-1 scenario.
thats crazy!!
the first rule of investment is dont loose your money!
you think kawa-1 is a sure thing? sorry, you obviously dont have a clue in investing in exploration wells..
tanager-1 for example is right next to one of the biggest discoveries in guyana - ranger, its connected by the same channels, exxon has all the 3d of both being the operator at both kaieteur and stabroek, they targeted 10 different layers!!! cos was 72%!!! each of of the targets had an above 50% cos!!! they stated many times that the oil at ranger comes from tanager!!
they ended up with nothing!!!
trust me, i was invested deeply on that well via ratio petroleum.
yes, cgx is like an option, theres no much shares on the market and that makes a very big moves in sp on news and creates unreasonable valuations like when the mc is more then fec.
the play is great, for me kawa-1 is the most attractive well in the basin at the moment, but if it fails to deliever cgx will be up its neck with debts and will be back to the 20-30's while fec has a real business behind it which makes money, they are not all in and kawa-1 is not valued on success like cgx.
i wish both fec and cgx investors and myself the best of luck but learn from others mistakes, if this well fails its a 90% drop on news for cgx.