RE:RE:RE:RE:Terrible bus. model | Sell FDGE & Buy AJX | Get UR $ BackI apologize for taking a victory lap around the hometown's track.
When FDGE went public, I was pretty excited because I am a fan of farmers, agriculture, and especially precision agriculture with all its new opportunities to invest in upstart companies.
But as I observed and listened to reliable sources with knowledgeable, considered opinions, I cooled because of what I saw as a company grasping for a huge opportunity, but with a flawed business model and relatively inexperienced management.
It looked to me that the stock was very rich and that the company faced a tough slog. Now the stock is less rich but still faces a tough slog.
I am not promoting AJX, just throwing in my two cents on how suffering investors in FDGE can get their money back by staying in precision Ag pure-play investments. And I do not want to see precision Ag to get a bad name with investors because of FDGE poisoning the water. There is too much money to be made there.
I am not interested in seeing AJX move up just yet. I would like to see the company make progress with the stock staying flat. That will allow me to acquire more shares gracefully and assure a big runup once investors catch on.
I was into precision Ag before it was cool; the 1980 with Dickey-john, Ag Chem Equipment, Raven, Weigh-tonics. Every company/and stock were a winner. There was nary a loser. These companies were all about equipment. And everything in their business model was traditional. Digitization has now changed everything.
FDGE is struggling because they are trying to sell
insights. I prefer to invest in companies selling automation and autonomy.
Smart investors know that
"Autonomous equipment will be as transformative as mechanized agriculture. It'll be the platform that will fulfill the promise of digital farming, which has struggled to drive value from insights alone." https://agfundernews.com/agfunder-exit-review-why-john-deere-acquired-bear-flag-robotics-for-250m.html Here are a couple of links that express what I am sensing better than I can.
https://upstreamaginsights.substack.com/p/farmers-edge-q2-2021-results-and?justPublished=true
https://upstreamaginsights.substack.com/p/farmers-edge-ipo What strikes me most is the tendency of management to sow confusion.
Also, I'm not too fond of the idea that the CFO is going back to his prior employer.
I don't particularly appreciate that the analysts who follow the company are bankers who bagged their customers. All I heard on the call was confusion.
Yes, there can be a dead cat bounce. We will have to wait and see how high and for how long.
I do not know much about Fairfax other than that they were behind this suspect and now broken IPO.
AJX has partners like Bosch, Komatsu, Kubota, Mahindra. These are partners that generate revenues. They also have coherent plan and a highly experienced CEO.
It will be interesting to see how things work out for both companies.
I wish FDGE and its investors all the best.
Let's check back in a year.