RE:cgx vs. fec Unfortunately, I have to disagree.
There is absolutely little correlation to Exxon's Ranger-1 (a four way carbonate based reservoir) and Exxon's Liza (a stratigraphic turbidite sand reservoir). These are completely different play types. In addition, development of the resource will require different completion technologies as well. Very, very different.
In addition, it is an absolute stretch of the imagination to say prospects located on the slope margin (Stabroek, Corentyne, and Demarara) are comparable to those positioned on the abyssal plain (Canje and Tanager licenses). When you look at all the discoveries that have been made in the Guyana Suriname basin to date - from Paraya, Liza, Hammerhead, turbot area, yellowtail, triple tail, Maka, Keskesi, etc (everything aside from Ranger) - all are stratigraphic traps with some structural component to it in certain cases.
The Canje and Tanager licenses are located on the abyssal plain! I am sure there are world class discoveries that will be made on those licenses - but, it will take time to calibrate which actual play types will work on the abyssal plain. Exxon is the best deepwater operator in the world - they have drilled ~5 wells on the abyssal plain and all have been unsuccessful / uncommercial. So, clearly they have some work to do recalbrating their program down dip of where they have been successful.
Now, with Kawa, it does not take a rocket scientist to see the multiples world class discoveries that been made proximal to its location. Furthermore, it shares all same ingredients to those successful wells that have been made immediately adjacent to it. Same source rock, same channel feeder system, same stratigraphic trapping mechanism, same sloped terrace (relative to Maka), and same reservoir (cenomanian and Santonian reservoirs).
Given the above - Kawa is not a 100% sure thing. Your cautious approach to investing in exploration companies is well received. Investors should account for those risks as part of managing their overall portfolio allocation.
In my humble opinion, given this is exploration drilling, this is the best risk-reward exploration campaign I have been able to participate in. Note, I have been investing in the Atlantic Margin since the original Jubilee well was discovered in 2007. I humbly do not believe we will see another opportunity like this in my lifetime.
GLTA - within 100 days will know with certainty what Kawa holds for investors