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Spectral Medical Inc T.EDT

Alternate Symbol(s):  EDTXF

Spectral Medical Inc. is a Canada-based late-stage theragnostic company advancing therapeutic options for sepsis and septic shock. The Company develops and commercializes a treatment for septic shock utilizing its Endotoxin Activity Assay (EAA) diagnostic and the Toraymyxin therapeutic (PMX). PMX is a therapeutic hemoperfusion device that removes endotoxin, which can cause sepsis, from the bloodstream and is guided by the Company’s EAA. PMX is approved for therapeutic use in Japan and Europe and has been used safely and effectively on more than 340,000 patients to date. It has pioneered the development of biochemical markers for the clinical syndrome known as septic shock. It is continuing its legacy business of manufacturing and selling certain proprietary reagents. It develops, produces and markets recombinant proteins, antibodies and calibrators. These materials are sold for use in research and development, as well as in products manufactured by other diagnostic companies.


TSX:EDT - Post by User

Comment by mercedesmanon Aug 16, 2021 4:49pm
179 Views
Post# 33711737

RE:RE:$ 25 to $ 30 million ?

RE:RE:$ 25 to $ 30 million ?
BayStreetWild wrote:

are you high on drugs or something? 


at 33 cents I'd say the chances of the over allotment being used is 0-0.0001%. 


the stock needs to go up almost 100% from here for the warrants to be exercised. Good luck with that happening in the near term. 


baxter $6M. Where is this imaginary number coming from. 


the only thing we are sure of is the burn rate.... which is set to increase. We are also told that 6 people have been enrolled in the last 2 1/2 months at what the company considers enhanced (extremely good). You can do the math yourself on how much cash is needed until the end. We can feel relatively safe that they don't need a financing until next spring (after that the clock starts ticking again) but even that is subject to change. 

 

mercedesman wrote: Is the possible amount of cash on hand plus what may be coming in over the coming Qtrs.

$ 13M COH  (after the recent $ 10M raise)

Other possible sources:

 

  • $ 1.5M on over-alotment potential (that'll be interesting to watch)
  • $ 6M on exercise of about $ 12M new warrants  (at .50) assuming SP goes back up over $ .50
  • $ 6M+ from Baxter (2nd tranche, on Interim Data review).  Redacted but educated guess.
Assumes no new cash on Sales $ coming form SAMI, EAA, etc. (Aren't we hiring?)
Also assumes nothing from Baxter on the final Tranche. (another $ 6M CAD $)


Total of above $ 26.5M


In the First 1/2 of 2021 they burned through $ 4.2M in cash (from Operations, excluding the effect of the .45 warrant financing of $ 3.2). 

Lets say that increases to $5M/Half year (or $ 10M/year)

The math suggests, that if the extra $ come in (as above) that there would be a minimum of 5 "Half" years worth of cash ($ 25M/5). Or 2.5 years worth.   That would take us to Feb, 2024.

Also assumes no new cash on Sales $ coming form SAMI, EAA, etc. (Aren't we hiring a Mgt team & salespeople ?)


It would seem that Mr. See-to-it is hihgly risk averse, and doesn't like the idea of being caught with little to no cash. I would strongly suggest that he is now more than covered until we get well past the next two critical  FDA D-days (now forecasted by the Co. to be 2022).

MM

 




I will indulge you one more time...and may again assuming a well reasoned response, but only  if the quality of your posts don't further regress or digress (to personal attacks on other posters) as they tended to do this afternoon.


I've seen over-alotments taken many times regardless of price...b especially if that was the plan all along...and buyers really know what they are gettgin regardless of trading price....BUT OK lets take that $ 1.5M off the table (and out of the $ 26.5M ) if you prefer.  Still leaves $ 25M (before other warrants, options, SAMI orders, Baxter final tranches, etc.)

In order for the .485 to .50 warrants to be exercised, you only need to see the share price  return to its prefinaincing price (the mid .50's) or better yet,  the price a month or so before that (the .60's and .70s). The .45's warrants were almost all exercised  when the SP was in high forties to low fifties. Plus the facts/fundamentals have not changed that much siince then.  In fact , many would argue that the fundamentals have improved (e.g Kellum, DIMI rights extension, insider buying, etc.). Were these warrant exercisers all on glue?     BUT, even still, the price doesn't necessarily have to return to those levels "in the near term".  They just have to return to that level before the 2.5 years is up (to justify my "we realistically do not need more cash pre- at least one FDA  ruling in 2022" argument)...

For the record, I don't expect the new warants to be exercised unless and until (1) it is needed and (2) a probably very loyal and co-operative group gets the requisite tap on the shoulder.


You may argue that PMX will be delayed another year to 2023 or beyond (by extrapolating based using perhaps a "Covid forever," position and or a return to the pre-Kellum past) but it is not credible.   Not only does your argument not take into account new facts (hospital rejigging, ICU re-openieings, new players, Kellum, Mgt statements,  etc.) it also does not take into account the timing of the DIMI Trial & a related FDA ruling on that peice.  When did that DIMI 30 person Trial/Study approval get moved past 2022?  I must have missed that NR.   Finally does the market not anticpate a rulling before it happens ?

Finally you argue that the burn rate is going way up.
Firstly I factored in an increase to the burn rate .
Secondly, you can't have it both ways.  The Trial can't both crawl along at the snail's pace that you suggest that it will continue to do, while at the same time the burn rate is increasing (due to Trial activity)  It's either one or the other isn't it? (serious responses only - not more gaslighting)

The $ 6M (CAD ) on Baxter Tranche # 2  is an educated based in part on past discussions I have had with IR..and I rounded it down.  The timing of that should be no later than Q1 or Q2 2022, unless Baxter doesn't like what they see (despite repeated assurances to the contrary from Spectral that they should based on early enrollment).

MM

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