Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

Alternate Symbol(s): BTE

Energy Oil & Gas E&P

Baytex Energy Corp. is a Canada-based energy company. The Company is engaged in the acquisition, development and production of crude oil and natural gas in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin and in the Eagle Ford in the United States. Its crude oil and natural gas operations are organized into three main operating areas: Light Oil USA (Eagle Ford), Light Oil Canada (Pembina Duvernay / Viking) and Heavy Oil Canada (Peace River / Peavine / Lloydminster). Its Eagle Ford assets are located in the core of the liquids-rich Eagle Ford shale in South Texas. The Eagle Ford shale covers approximately 269,000 gross acres of crude oil operations. Its Viking assets are located in the Dodsland area in southwest Saskatchewan and in the Esther area of southeastern Alberta. It also holds 100% working interest land position in the East Duvernay resource play in central Alberta.

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Baytex Energy Corp

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Post by BayStreetWolfTOon Aug 17, 2021 8:45am

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Post# 33715885

Battle plan Assumptions using ONLY $65 oil going forward!

Below where we are this morning....

My thoughts on a BTE battle plan (debt/share buyback)

With only 3 contract days to go for Q3 WTI we will finish above $70/bbl in Q3...versus $52.09 in Q1 and $62.71 in Q2. Therefore while we should see a bit more FCF in Q3 I am being conservative. Soon we will only have 90 days in Q4 to hit the full year numbers

So going with Eric Nutall suggestion of 50% of FCF to shareholder returns...that allows $200 million (while still easily hitting the management debt targets)

AGAIN THIS IS USING ONLY $65 OIL FOR 2022! AND Q3 2021!

You can still get to the management debt target and start meaningful buybacks in Jan 2022.

That said if you complete a 10% share buybvack $200 million might be too much as at $2.18 per share $200 million would buy 91m shares (which is over the 10% NCIB limit unless you complete an SIB not an NCIB or unless of course the price goes up on those buybacks).

Again this does NOT include Clearwater and does NOT include the new higher value hedges in 2022 which should add even more FCF.

And of course I am being conservative and assuming $65 WTI average for ALL of 2022.

I just don't see how you can't start a meaningful buyback Jan 1st if the pricing holds.

		Millions ($)
-------------------------------	--------------------------------------------	-------------
	Jun 30th Net Debt	$ 1,629
	Jul payment (1H FCF)	$ 125
2021 Debt payment	Q3 FCF ( @ $70 WTI)	$ 120
2021 Debt payment	Q4 FCF ( @ $65 WTI)	$ 100
Mgmt target 1.0-1.2	2021 Ending Net Debt	$ 1,284

2022 Debt payment	Q1 FCF ( @ $65 WTI)	$ 50
2022 Debt payment	Q2 FCF ( @ $65 WTI)	$ 50
2022 Debt payment	Q3 FCF ( @ $65 WTI)	$ 50
2022 Debt payment	Q4 FCF ( @ $65 WTI)	$ 50
Mgmt target 1.0-1.2	2022 Ending Net Debt	$ 1,084


2022 Share buyback	Q1 FCF ( @ $65 WTI) 50%	$ 50
2022 Share buyback	Q2 FCF ( @ $55 WTI) 50%	$ 50
2022 Share buyback	Q3 FCF ( @ $65 WTI) 50%	$ 50
2022 Share buyback	Q4 FCF ( @ $65 WTI) 50%	$ 50
	2022 Total Share buyback ($)	$ 200