RE:RE:RE:RE:NASH THTX didn't let the opportunity go away in fact during the last chat Paul talked more about NASH than other projects now they seems to have an event just for NASH. Good for them. If the board doesn't want to allocate resources to costly NASH that's understandable for a small company like THTX in fact many here always wanted a partnership for the program so they de-risk it and bring more credibility to it.
The legacy analysts are not engaged in any aspect of company's projects some don't even know the oncology trial has started. As for NASH I believe all the U turns is confusing the market and analysts, first HIV then general then partnership so it all should end when they get that partner. Between now and then and beyond a decent measured retail approach would be very helpful.
qwerty22 wrote:
From what I can tell nobody knows what the new OCA 18 month data will look like, I'm not sure it's even complete so Abraham's first comment is pretty vacuous. If you give yourself another roll of the dice you always have a chance of winning, I can't see it going much deeper than that.
It's always safety AND efficacy, getting a clear positive balance for the two. I agree OCA has a safety issue that Egrifta doesn't but Egrifta is way, way behind on proving those Ph3 endpoints.
My point was just how quickly analysts begin hedging their bets when faced with added complexity and uncertainty, but that is obvious I guess. OCA is nothing if not complex and uncertain. I think there are Egrifta parallels there but for different reasons. My guess is that is what stopped them even engaging with the thtx program in the first place.
The X billion dollar market explains why thtx shouldn't just let this opportunity disappear. But how and when they unlock the value is important as well and you have to go deeper into the internals and externals to try to figure that out. Just saying X billion doesn't get you very far IMO.
scarlet1967 wrote:
"To RBC Capital Markets, Intercept’s data boost and new trial design will “have much more power" to determine a benefit for obeticholic acid patients, according to a note sent on Thursday. However, it “still remains unclear” exactly how well the treatment has to perform to satisfy regulators, particularly when considering safety, RBC analyst Brian Abrahams wrote."
so their issues are mainly re the safety of the drug, Egrifta is safe.