RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Kol event I remain confused by the KOL event on NASH and by everything proceeding it too I supose. I suspect that may because I am just too dense to see what has been really going on behind the scenes. But I am also not going to complain too loudly about TH trying to highlight the value of their NASH asset and bringing out all of the big guns to get that done. In fact, the Grumpy Grader may just give them an "A" this week for effort on this front, long delayed as that effort may have been. As you know, it has been maddening for me to see TH's stock price languish despite the very large NASH rabbitt they managed to pull put of their hat. What they accomplished with NASH is really quite stunning (assuming they get it over the finish line of starting the trial/ successful partnership) and how the narrative ever got to be a negative one around this amazing creation of shareholder value and equal display of management skill and persistence, out of virtually nothing, I will never know. But, maybe this KOL event will be the thing that turns the narrative into a big positive for TH. If Loomba, Harrison and Grinspoon can turn it around, then nothing will likely ever work. So, while still a bit confused, I am also thrilled they are doing this and wish they would have taken the bull by the horns like this much earlier.
The confusion is primarily about why now? I would be interested in other takes on this but here are my best guesses on this:
1.) The early feedback they have recieved from potential partnership suitors reflects the poor job they have done in selling NASH to the market thus far and resulted in either low-ball partnership offers or maybe no offers at all. So, they finally realized they had failed to convince almost anyone else about the merits of their phase III trial prospects and really needed to address the issue head on.
2.) The idea that Paul mentioned that they could start the trial on time by themselves suggests this is what they really want to do (or at elast it is what Paul really wants to do). The board said there is no way we can sell shares at these levels to fund the trial so we have to partner given the higher costs required to get the regulators to agree to a phase III protocol. While the possibility of an interim look at the data could allow TH to end the trial before the costs got enormous, that evidently was still not enough to convince the board to plow ahead on their own. Does that reflect the board being squeamish about the data and possible success? Does it reflect the board's unwillingness to pursue a phase III when TH has no experience in doing any previous NASH trials? Is this KOL event as much aimed at the TH board as it is investors? Could the idea be that TH will pull back from the partnership idea and pursue it alone if the stock can just adequately reflect some value for NASH allowing any additional funds needed to be raised at a more reasonable price? I am all for that if Paul can pull it off. And given what they have already pulled off in NASH, who wants to bet against them. This KOL event certainnly looks like a very strong effort to do that and its success will likely be determined by who they can get to listen to it. Let's hope LSA commes through big time for TH as we know the analysts are not likely going to do so. And, sadly, Ed Nash is the only NASH analyst covering the stock and it is really hard to see how he would flip-flop again on t he stock no matter what TH shares at the KOL event. Maybe Cantor will come through for them too. But it is certainly worth the effort.
Wino115 wrote: Whatever the timeline, the program has never moved along a standard path. I suppose the next step will get it onto one.
I think another factor as to why this event is that the LSA strategy they paid nicely for told them to start by doing 2 KOL events for the 2 pipeline projects. This is just a mirror of #1 event but with more luminaries on the payroll. Could be nothing more than the rollout of the LSA view of how to do it. SPCEO mentioned he gets many LSA KOL event invites. If so, it's not signaling anything except they laid LSA for a 12 month plan.
AMoschitto wrote:
The thing that's odd is they kept blaming EMA for the delays from time of the FDA study may proceed letter to the July Earnings Call. But in the call with Canacord, they said conversations with the EMA went very smoothly... and Paul seemed to imply it went off without a hitch. So there's a lag in the timeline that could be explained by partnership talks, but isn't explained on Theras own terms. But a delay in developing partnership discussions could explain the turnabout from dosing in September to open to a partner in the earnings call. Im obviously speculating, but the NASH timelines don't make sense from what Thera has said publicly and when the study may proceed letter came out. Any other thoughts on that?