Undervalued 1
There are reasons for it but it is overdone.\
Delay in getting Coho on line is annoying (flow testing and pressure release tests were in November 2019) and I am praying it will come on-line with first gas in November 2021. Two years is crazy to hook into an established pipeline 3 km away. Yet the gas is there, the spigot just has to be turned, and the well will produce for many years.
Similarly Casca-1ST and Casca Deep are ready to go. Just hook them up and turn the spigot. Then produce for many years. The 3 development wells at Cascadura are also into proven reservoir and will more than double Cascadura production and cash flow. For many years. Each one of those 3 new development wells will add 5000 boe/d to a company with current production of 2000 boe/d. (and with about 12,000 boe/d already drilled and sitting behind spigots at Coho, Cascadure1-ST and Cascadura Deep. Once the 4 legacy commitment wells are drilled (maybe adding 100 boe/d each), there is nothing better for that Canadian rig to do than to jump over to Cascadura and punch out three 5000 boe/d wells, once the development plan is accepted and the well pads are prepared.
All that is baked in. No exploratory risk. That gets us to a 25,000 to 30,000 boe/d company from current 2,000 boe/d. With a wall of cash coming in. The turbidite sands on- shore in Trinidad model that Xavier Moonan proposed 10 years ago is PROVEN. There are gas charged Hererra sand packages on land Trinidad (fully tested Coho and Cascadura discoveries) exactly like some of the off shore gas pools that others are poking pipes into.
Those are the knowns. Now consider the unknowns.
1. Could there be similar deep pools under the legacy blocks, in-queue to be tested at Coora? No reason why not.
2. Could Royston be another discovery, similar but larger than Cascadura? Seems possible if not probable. Could add 25,000 boe/d additional production with a discovery well and a few development wells. A Royston discovery would be easy to produce because close to major gas and oil pipelines. Responsibility for the gas connections lies with NGC.
3. Could the planned up dip wells at Chinook be oil wells?
4. Could the second round of exploratory wells to start likely 2022 also have discoveries. Steelhead and Guabine are targeting Hererra sands and might find something. Highly possible as the model is proven.
5. Kraken is also part of the 3 well second exploratory phase. It is a deep cretaceous prospect of large size. Could it be an oil pool similar to these that are being found off shore Guyana and Surinam by Exxon and others (most important oil discoveries world wide right now) . I think that is a long shot for sure. But the geology is at least consistent. That would be awe-inspiring and lottery like discovery. It would be worth more than every thing above by a long shot.