RE:RiskJJJRRR wrote: I was asked about the risk of a dry hole, as it is not a sure thing. My response was if it was a sure thing the stock would not be trading at two dollars! Also Frontera and CGX would not risk (or gamble) $80 million on a high risk low probability well.I'll put my money with the big boys!!
I would think the chance of finding hydrocarbons are fairly close to if not 100%. The success is going to come down to trap and seal. If the trap and seal are there, the CGX longs will be very happy (although the ones that think it jumps to $20 will be in for a wake up call). Assuming the CGX geologists are good and much better then their communication department, I'd guess the COS to be 35-50%.
It really is to bad their communications department is horrible. These should not be guesses, these are answers that should be provided!