RE:RE:Projected global 2021 air traffic continues to drop Rouge10 wrote: Lets analyze this article. To begin with very interesting. But the beauty is in the details.
The largest forecast drops came out of India, Indonesia and South Africa. The largest gains came out of Australia, Brazil and Mexico. Obviously, Australia has been very slow to vaccinate and open and is scheduled to open many months behind World/Canada. It means that North American projections are right about average , +/- by few points. Note, that Canada is behind US (air traffic opening) to begin with and it means Canada will see lot of catching up in coming months
The total drop in projections is about 10% (compared to previous projections). Refer to slide 3, North American Intraregional is projected at 82% by Nov of this year. This is slightly better than what I had assumed earlier. Btw, it means North America wide, which is roughly 60% of 2019 volume.
AC is set to become cash positive by 45% of 2019 traffic volume. And 82% of 60% is roughly 49%, which means AC will be cash flow positive in Q4. All above doesn't include International travel, which opens in 2 weeks from now. My guess is international travel will be slow to open (but with good capacity utilization; like someone said, merge two flights into one by canceling 1).
Thanks Rouge10