It is the end of the week and we are at $0.37. Let's see what next week will bring.
Next week CLAS probably will release the financials and maybe/hopefully some other NR's.
Phase I, as I mentioned, has started with recruiting volunteers and the first injection is on the 16th of September. Probably we will hear about Phase I progress until cohort 1 has finished and cohort 2 can start.
In the meantime, the SP does not want to move. For the reason why already a plethora of explanations was put forward on this forum, but also on other fora.
Investors and traders are put in a dilemma: to sell or to hold, should I buy now or wait?
To help you straighten your thoughts I have here this excellent essay brought to you by claritasinvestors. I think it is a nice reading for the weekend.
Have a nice weekend all of you, including the people I chatted with this week, and good luck to all. Enjoy!
"LE PARI DE PASCAL AND THE ZEN OF CLARITAS
I’ve always been fond of this particular essay and in the logic and factualness of the argument put forth. I’ve updated it to reflect more of what we know today and, hope you enjoy it.
In the 1600s, the first modern era kicked off with the invention of the printing press and, along with it came the age of discovery, sail, and some of the deepest thinkers ever known such as Rene Descartes (‘I think, therefore I am’) and the author of the logic for this essay - Blais Pascal, a brilliant philosophical nobleman who had a fixation with formulating mathematical equations for gambling and games of chance.
“Follow me,” Jesus said to Peter and Andrew, “and I will make you fishers of men.” Similarly, Pascal, being a devout Catholic, used his logic and math skills to also become a fisher of men with his biggest claim to fame coming in the form of a book called ‘Pensees’ or ‘Thoughts.’ The collection, which is an assortment of … well … his thoughts, was to become a compilation of Christian apologetics which, after dying at the ripe young age of 39 he never completed rather, it was published years later and, like this logical argument explained below, continues to be a mainstay in modern philosophy to this day and, has since been used to bolster arguments from climate change to stock market plays.
The most famous chapter, ‘Le Pari de Pascal,’ or ‘Pascal’s Wager,’ is unique as he doesn't try to prove the existence of God, but rather, uses risk/reward logic, or gambling odds to show why one should reconsider the folly of unbelief.
To properly understand this, there are a couple of theoretical givens in his imaginary bet which are;
- by pursuing earthly pleasures, you are turning away from God and, God, heaven and eternal life go hand in hand.
- to gain access to God and heaven you must turn away from hedonistic pleasures and worship God.
Understanding this, the reader is taken to an imaginary casino where he (or she,) wagers with their soul if there is a God or not.
It goes something like choosing between a life of earthly pleasures or, worship of God, with the end result being one of the following;
1. If you chose to turn from God and pursue self-indulgent activities and he does exist, you lose being in heaven for all eternity.
2. If there is no God, you lose nothing and, have gained whatever pleasures you managed to temporarily acquire during your life which, won’t matter one iota because you’ll be dead.
3. On the other hand, if you shun earthly pleasures and worship God and, the big guy isn’t there well, nobody’s the wiser and, you get to spend eternity doing nothing but pushing up daisies.
4. Conversely, if there is a God, lucky you, as you hit the jackpot for eternity and get to spend forever in heaven.
To summarize, in Pascal’s Wager, of the four possible outcomes, three are meaninglessly insignificant but, the possibility of the fourth outcome, no matter how remote or unbelievable, makes any other choice an extremely poor one.
But what on earth does this all have to do with Claritas and the Zen of Claritas you might ask? Simple. In both Claritas’ and Pascal’s posits there are only two basic outcomes – yes and no. And, in both cases, the risk verses rewards are so ludicrously disproportionate that normal reasoning and odds don’t apply leaving only one logical choice.
For the Claritas investor, the wager is reduced to betting what they have left of their paper investment. Say 50% of the original investment. For example, $25,000 of an original $50,000. Enough to be stressed over losing, enough to reinvest elsewhere and begin anew or, enough to get out altogether and use to buy a car, travel trailer or do some life enriching activities like a family vacation or home renovations.
With Claritas and betting on R-107 tech, there are some who feel any potential risk in staying invested may outweigh what they feel, are at best, only possible mediocre gains if any. Others are simply traders who got caught flat footed when the timeline for an expected pay off did not go as expected or, the share price direction did not go up as they had hoped and instead, a lengthy halt occurred which made it impossible to exit their position.
For whatever reason, many are not emotionally able to look at the play in a detached logical manner and, understandably have little incentive to continue to enthusiastically throw their hats into the ring to support Claritas.
The market for both PAH and COVID are in the billions –$6 billion for PAH and $88 billion for COVID. Given our share count of 35 million that is a potential share price of $28 per billion or, $28,000 per share for the entire market.
How much of that market can R-107 command? Unknown but, certainly enough to make it a very profitable venture for Big Pharma (BP) even after paying us 20% and residuals which, could give us a SP of over $500 per share.
If numbers like that weird you out, try cutting them back a bit to say, one percent or, $50 per share. Using our fictional investor with $25,000 left of his original $50,000 would give him a possible life-changing $3,500,000. A far cry from his renovations, travel trailer, or doubling his money in another play. In any case, it doesn’t matter as nobody can predict the future but, we can apply logic to it. Or, in this case, the Claritas version of Pascal’s Wager.
Claritas’ Wager
The Claritas investor is taken to a theoretical casino and forced to make an abstract wager if Kalytera is going to develop R-107 to the point where it is attractive to garner the attention of BP or not. It goes like this;
If they exit their position now
If Claritas fails to perform they lose half of their initial investment and, have gained whatever happiness or pleasures their leftover investment money allows and, experience a feeling of relief for getting out of what they consider to be a losing stock play which, may also be somewhat over shadowed by self-blame over not getting out earlier and preserving more capital. but at least they are a little less miserable.
On the other hand, if Claritas takes off, they live the rest of their life knowing they made the wrong move in a life changing moment and, gave up any chance of winning an enormous amount of money which they could use to better not only their own life but those of their family.
If they hold
In this case, if Claritas doesn’t perform, they lose what little they had left and forgo reinvesting or buying the thing they could have that over the long term, really wouldn’t make much of a difference in their life or that of their family.
However, if Kalytera does perform, they are set for life, quit work, travel the world, help people, give to charity, help the needy, live life free and large.
As you can see, three of the four theoretical outcomes have little in the way of material ramifications but, the possibility of the fourth outcome makes any other choice a poor fiscal one.
As long as we are in our fictional casino let’s stop by the roulette table. It’s a special table in that it has no double zeros and, only two betting squares – ' Claritas ' and ‘NOT Claritas.' The rules for this game are easy – prior to placing a bet you have to go through a flashy thingy that makes you forget everything you ever knew about Claritas - and, all its deals and history so, you are betting completely blind, reducing your perceived choice to a straight fifty/fifty bet but, the payout is a possible multimillion dollar life changer.
So with our gambler looking at 50/50 odds and a possible multimillion dollar to one payout it is an obvious decision where to place his bet.
But, those numbers freak most investors out and our guy is no different as they are seemingly too good to be true so, our investor heads to the bar for some liquid courage where, a friendly guy offers to give him a ‘hot tip’ in return for a drink. Luckily, our fellow has some spare change so, buys him a beer and he gets told some facts that are indisputable;
- Every COVID vaccination on earth is centered around stopping the COVID cell from using it’s receptors from attaching to the healthy cells and replicating itself.
- Nitric oxide is known to stop the COVID cells receptors from attaching to healthy cells.
- Unlike vaccines, Nitric Oxide works against ALL COVID variants
- Nitric Oxide is already widely instrumental in treating lung injuries.
- Nitric oxide is already being safely and effectively provided to the body in every conceivable form ranging from pills, creams, inhalation, nasal sprays and intravenous directly into the veins.
- Claritas has the only globally patented depot injection that releases nitric oxide into the body in a sustained measured action over 24 hours.
- Time release depot injections and capsules are commonplace in the medical world for everything from steroids, morphine to behavioral drugs.
- After Phase 1 in September, Claritas will more than likely receive a $20 million BARDA grant to aid in the development of R-107 as a COVID treatment.
- R-107 is thought to not only aid in treatment of PAH but reverse or cure the affliction itself.
So now, finishing his beer and armed with some newfound knowledge that completely changes the odds from the original 50/50 to a hypothetical 99/1 in favor of Claritas, does he sell everything or hold? And, if he sells, what does he do with his depreciated capital? Spin the wheel on another stock to possibly double or half his money, buy a dirt bike, travel trailer he will only use for a couple of weeks a year, renovation for the kitchen, new stereo or vacation?
And how will he feel if after a few months his travel trailer is gathering dust and Kalytera begins to go up….. and then, never stops going up – all the while he has ample time to think about how fear forced him to throw away one of those rare chances to not only change his life for the better but the lives of the next five generations of his family.
And that my fellow investors, is the Zen Of Claritas. Don't let fear rule your decisions. Know the facts, know your investment.
Good luck to all both pro and con."
If you want to read more about Claritas Pharmaceuticals (CLAS) you can go to this link clarita.ca