RE:$$ ;“Just on the hype alone, before this even goes to court we should c .40 . That to me would be a triple from here”. I would be very Interested to see how you define ‘hype’. If you trade for a double then spikes are more your bread and butter, but C 0.40 by Sept? It would be nice.
However, let me give you the negative case (and by the way I hold near ¾ mill shares), but as a long-term investor one should look at both sides.
Consider, Montagne d’Or becomes a major environmental topic in the French election which is a strong possibility (especially, based on any potential miscalculations by Nordgold - see my following comments). In response Macron enacts exactly the potential fear I posted about earlier; he uses Montagne d’Or as a sacrificial lamb to his April 2022 election bid! Thus, he garners all sorts of kudos from environmental NGO’s. Don’t’ think that Macron's political survival isn’t more important to him than a couple of thousand FG jobs.
Now pray NG does not come in with a high risk OREA bid before the French election. This would cause ructions amongst Macron’s anti lobby (i.e., Russians in the FG Rainforest!). In fact, pray more so that the French gov’ actually does appeal in Sept’ (they will almost certainly lose). This automatically pushes back the permit app/reports submission by NG. All should hope then that NG fholds onto the submission of apps until after the French election, so that it is a far less news worthy issue for Macron to have to consider during his campaign.
Obviously should the Montagne d’Or permit be eventually denied, then forget gold mining in FG as the other majors flee (Newmont, Barrick + explorer Reunion) and, likewise, OREA’s Maripa would become valueless. Then add to this that by the end of Sept’ 2021 OREA potentially were to announce (as it did with its Columbia project) that due to DD, it is not going to go ahead with the Suriname venture.
Pretty bleak picture should all this come to pass. This is potentially why OREA sp has spent the last 12 months around US $0.14 or less, despite sitting on approx.’ 1.25 mill oz P&P ‘locked’ away from all. there's a lot of risk that is acting as a limiter on the sp.
However, should we see the permit awarded in
late 2022, then with hopefully a still rising gold price and a mine revaluation that could near double its previous BFS value, IMO you are looking at a sp for buyout at well over $1.
Further, any NG predatory buyout practices after the permit is awarded will almost certainly draw a bidding war, just as their last African buying adventure which led to their defeat with an almost eventual triple price buyout by a Chinese entity. (This is why I fear a very high-risk private NG hostile take out bid for OREA before the permit is awarded to avoid competition from public majors who have their shareholders to consider).
IMO, bar a helpful announcement from OREA to go ahead with the Suriname project, we should hope that there is no news from NG on the Montagne d’Or front at all, until after the French election.
Hope this helps DD.
GLTA -
https://twitter.com/EarthsRare