Topics: 1. Battle Plan, 2. Company Comment
 
  1. Battle plan-Share buyback assumption with only ***$65 oil***. I could get used to $65+ oil...at a 50/50 split that would give us $240 million a year for share buyback. That should be able to make a dent. Below is a "What IF" on Q4 @ $65 along with all 2022 @ $65...remember in 2022 they are hedged in 2022 and get I believe $58 for oil if between $48 and $58...on the 3-way. My thoughts on a BTE battle plan (debt/share buyback) @ $65. Hopefully that $240M+ could buyback a lot of shares IF oil was $65 throughout Q4 21 and all of 2022.
 
     Millions ($)
------------------------------- -------------------------------------------- -------------
  Jun 30th Net Debt $1,629
  Jul payment (1H FCF) $125
2021 Debt payment Q3 FCF ( @ $70 WTI) $130
2021 Debt payment Q4 FCF ( @ $65 WTI) $120
  2021 Ending Net Debt $1,254
     
2022 Debt payment Q1 FCF ( @ $65 WTI) $60
2022 Debt payment Q2 FCF ( @ $65 WTI) $60
2022 Debt payment Q3 FCF ( @ $65 WTI) $60
2022 Debt payment Q4 FCF ( @ $65 WTI) $60
  2022 Ending Net Debt $1,014
     
     
2022 Share buyback Q1 FCF ( @ $65 WTI) 50% $60
2022 Share buyback Q2 FCF ( @ $65 WTI) 50% $60
2022 Share buyback Q3 FCF ( @ $65 WTI) 50% $60
2022 Share buyback Q4 FCF ( @ $65 WTI) 50% $60
  2022 Total Share buyback ($) $240
 
 
  1. Given the large short position....as I have said shorts are running out of time...soon the company will be buying back shares...
 
  1. Straight from Ed the CEO of Baytex at the Enercom Conference. "2022 offering direct return to shareholders" "We feel buying back our shares would be extremely prudent and we could take a big chunk back in this early phase"
  2. Reference: https://www.theoilandgasconference.com/baytex-energy-corporation/
  3. Timeline - 8:30-8:55min