RE:$$ ;I can’t add much more to what I have already stated in my earlier posts. As was stated earlier we are different investors in terms of our buy objectives for OREA.
However, as I have also suggested this could be a stock for both traders and long termers like myself through 2022 +
For example, let’s imagine that Nord Gold buys out OREA in the next several months for let’s say US 0.45. You will make a double if you bought at 0.20 + and that’s it! OREA is gone as a stock (let’s forget a spinout for argument’s sake). The golden goose is dead!
Bidding war? Don’t expect any public majors to come in to drive up the bid price. Remember, you try telling your public shareholders that you wanted 45% of a mine permit the renewal licenses potentially being challenged by the French gov’ in court. Then never mind that the reports/apps for the mine permit have not even been submitted and then who knows what the mining permit decision might be?
In fact, might this be the reason that NG did not come back to the public market this summer as they intended because of the potential for a shareholder uprising should they attempt such a high-risk speculative move with OREA?
So, why would the private NG try such a move? Over simplifying, they know that should OREA have close to 1.5+ mill oz P&P (present about 1.23 and NG already exclusively know these 2018 infill results), then at around 230 mill OREA shares all in, NG would hold US$1.2 bill’ at 1,800 gold, after AISC ($750-800 per oz) + mine cost (approx. 350 mill) deducted. Their buyout cost at US$0.45 is around 100 mill’ (plus remeebr NG already holds around 9% of OREA so they are paying themselves as well. As some one said they are printing money. (Forgive any math errors).
However, what does an inground holding of US$1.2 bill do to a OREA sp if they are calculated to have anywhere near these numbers when the new reevaluation comes out after the reports/apps are submitted? Hence my guesstimate range of well over a $1. Now what happens if you get NG and the big boys in a real bidding war for this and the sp is already in the $1 plus range in 2022?
NG don’t partner, but maybe Barrick and Newmont or 10% OREA holder IAG want in on this cutting-edge technology and the first public FG gold mine.
The risks, the license renewals are denied, worse the mining permit is eventiually denied (based on French politics).
Personally, I am holding and voting no should any NG high risk low ball offer arrive. I believe the other 4 largest OREA shareholders will do the same after they have held for a number of years and no of us is here for 0.45. In fact, such a NG offer would confirm to me that things will likely play out for Montagne d’Or. Yuo, can wait for NG to sing to shareholders how this is high risk endeavor and they will give you 50% - 75% premium to have the privelge of taking the risk for you. Russians don't make such moves without a lot of thought and no doubt discussion with French contacts.
I think the court will again side with NG/OREA (French gov’ don’t care) and eventually I think the permit will be awarded because of the serious economic depression in FG (e.g., yesterday 3 of 20 + Brazilians drowned while trying to sail to an illegal FG gold mine). Bid moves are needed to impact the FG economy but no doubt after the French April election.
GLTA -
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