RE:RE:RE:RE:The 5 Peace River Clearwater appraisal wells are too closeHey Red! I too have been trying to crunch numbers.
#1 Assuming that they will put a majority of their fcf for Q3 and Q4 into debt repayment, they will need 292 million designated to repay the intial note. I on't think that they can do this with just 2 quarters. They need 146 million per quarter. I think Q1 2022 is definitely in play.
#2 The Clearwater project is self sufficient BUT will require cash. That cash will be generated by Clearwater. So you cannot bank on Clearwater to increase the FCF "until the project becomes more established" which imho will take 1-2 years. So you can't count any possible revenue from Clearwater increasing fcf.
#3 The hedging for 2022 appears to be "soft" at the moment at 42%. That is what oil is roughly trading at today's price. The remaining 58% should fetch a higher price "in the future" but I don't think it will make a big impact on the FCF the last 2 quarters. I think if oil starts to trade above $75 in 2022, we may see a hedge number closer to $73. If BTE wants to gamble, they could leave that 58% unhedged.
In conclusion, I am looking at about $132 million in q3 in FCF which is fantastic BUT with 1.6 billion in debt, the next 2-3 years will be spent paying it down.
Mas