RE:Thoughts from Seeking Alpha boardIve argued with him on board. i used to respect him as picking early entry shale picks..10 years ago...but I feel dead wrong on this.
BTE has no need to dilute period..especially for this play. 200 million would be so excessive overkill for this unless you were going for a 10 rig drill program...which isnt the smart move...so much surface infrastructure would be needed for only 1 to 2 year of locations at that pace.....drilling pace should match 10 year of inventory.....optimum rate...so with 200 locations that be 20 a year..more or less what they are forecasting with 18...now if they prove up more land and more locations....then a second rig could be added...but again this play is self funded with the 5 wells they already have completed and the 2300 bopd producing roughly 3 million a month of fund flow...as they drill more they will generate fcf even while ramping up production the results are just that good....or they can fire up a 2nd rig drill program but even that within 5 wells (2.5 months) will be self funded again and the fcf generation will be x2.
No need to dilute...if anything buy back shares...but I dont expect that till June of next year..Im hoping Jan 2022...but realistic theyll keep hammering the debt down.
If Clearwater lands all prove up to be fairly equal as they have, and they get some ok results out of east duverney...I wouldnt be surprised if they sell eagleford next year or into 2023 if can get decent price, which would wipe out all debt...maybe even little surplus to fund drill program on the east duverney play...they would be able to replace eagleford production fairly quickly.
Just my 2 cents.