Coming MonthsWill certainly be interesting. One thing I do know is that "insiders" will have first knowledge of any news before any supposed leaks become available. These "insiders" will include Catalyst Captial and other trading firms who have been blantantly manipulating the share price all these years. Look at how difficult it has been for basic CGX news to be released into public forms... no bloody way in hell will news regarding oil/no oil be released by some rig hands or drilling engineers. If Exxon and Apache kept their wells confidental, I guarantee Kawa-1 will also be kept under tight wraps. It sure wouldn't benefit the aformentioned "insiders" to see otherwise.
End of day, the reservoir interval(s) will not be penetrated by the drill bit until November (based on drilling timelines and rig logistics). If the well does hit big oil, the "insiders" will probably push the share price down in hopes of getting retail investors to sell. If the well is a bust, the "insiders" will probably push the share price up and then short the hell out of the stock once the news is released. Obviously if a JV comes along, share price will do whatever the terms of deal dictate. Until then, we all wait and hope for the best. I personally have offloaded a decent chunk of my share holdings in the past 2 weeks. As much as I would love to gamble and be "all in", I also need to be realistic and stay true to my investing strategies. The ~300-350% gains I did realize are sure nice to have locked in and will definitely carry me and my family well into the coming decades (especially locked into blue-chip US/CAD stocks).
Though none of us will ever know, I would love to know how many people are truly 100% "all in" (especially 15-20yr veterans of CGX) and are willing to let any capital gains truly ride on one well result... true gamblers at heart and they certainly have my respect!