SPCEO1 wrote: Given the main speakers, it is going to be heavy on the science. If they did announce a partnership before the event, then we would obviously get some details on that but that would not take very long. So, it will be a science-rich presentation. The big question is who will actually dial in and listen. We are counting on Cantor and LSA to bring a new audience to the stock and hopefully, they will deliver.
If they do have a partner already lined up, it will be interesting to see what Canaccord would do with their price target as a result. Will TH be able to get out of the Canaccord doghouse?
I have been perplexed by the timing of this NASH KOL event but the idea that they might announce a partnership agreement on Thursday or Friday and then explain it all on Monday seems like a reasonable explanation. Hopefully, that is what happens as the alternative of trying to get others interested in what TH has in NASH at this late date is not appealing. How any partnership deal impacts the stock will depend greatly on the terms and my sense is that TH is not looking for a lot of upfront cash that they can pocket immediately but would rather keep as large a stake in the NASH program as they are able. My sense is they believe in what they have, even if others do not, and want to play it out to the end as best they are able to do so. The objective of the NASH KOL event may be to highlight the partnership deal, get some respect for their science from the market and have the stock more properly reflect their NASH asset. That works for me - let's hope that is what we have to look forward to.
I think the most plausible alternatives with NASH are:
1.) No interest, cancel the program (15% chance)
2.) Partnership on terms that will best described as just OK (40% chance)
3.) Go it alone by raising money post the cancer reveal (assuming the cancer data is looking good) (30% chance)
4.) Go it alone by raising money soon (assuming the cancer data is looking more sketchy) (15% chance)
qwerty22 wrote: Even if they don't have a partnership lined up it would still be great if this was more focused on the business side of the equation but I expect it's going to be clinical heavy and so not much new for us. Hopefully useful for others though.
SPCEO1 wrote: It is worth recalling that I did not give much credence to that rumor. But while we have been focused on the odd timing of the KOL event because we think any partnership will take longer to put together, one possible explanation for the timing of the KOL event is that they will announce a partnership this week and then follow up with the KOL event explaining it a week from tomorrow. So, maybe our focus on the kong time it takes to put a partnership together did not take into considereation any partnership discussions that may have begun well before TH announced its intention to partner. And maybe Paul's recent call for any pharma wanting a second shot on this very big goal to pony up $50 million to get into the action was basically the last call to other pharmas who might be interested before they signed a deal with the partner they already have lined up.
qwerty22 wrote: I know SPCEO has this 60 day rumour about when a deal will happen but to me it's much, much longer than that and I tend to think we are only at the start of the process. Making these guesses about wether the process is going well or badly doesn't make a whole lot of sense, like laying the foundations and deciding the house looks great.
The KOL event is there to shine light on a program that's flying under the radar. Maybe it's telling investors "you're going to be thinking about investing in cancer in the coming months but you're getting this shot at a blockbuster as well for free". Maybe they think there's some value to the partnering process to having two of the leading voices in NASH drug development speaking about their program, it's not the thing that gets deals signed but it can't be a bad thing. Having gone through this long regulatory process it makes sense to go into depth on where the program stands now.
palinc2000 wrote: The reasons for holding the KOL event can range from no interest at all and rhus teying to prop up the SP high enough to draw on the ATM to a lot of interest but too low financial terms which again would also require to prop up the SP
In the meantime of course we know that there is no deal....
quote=SPCEO1]I hope I am wrong but I struggle to see a reason for the KOL event if there were any substantial partnership interest. Or maybe there has been some interest but it has been too low on the financial terms and the purpose of the KOL event is to show they have support from investors to go it alone in order to get better terms from the potential partners.
Wino115 wrote: Maybe ask for each KOLs view on a hypothetically good partner and why? Would be interesting to hear what aspects of the program they view as important to other players.
qwerty22 wrote: Do you think if somebody asked at the KOL event if anybody was in the data
room, taking a look at the program, they would answer that? Not who, just yes/no anybody in there?