RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:If you bought at $1.50...Yes, you can't rule anything out! All I'm saying is that I can't make a credible investment thesis for anything above $15, even though I am long and bullish on the stock. Nor would I advise anyone opening a position at, say $10.50, on the grounds that it's going to almost double. But I'd advise them to open a position now for income with a potential upside on the SP.
To be honest, the only way I'd look higher than $15 was if we were to get Fowler or Janes setting out a very clear business case for it, along with a ton of metrics and a strategy. I am not expecting that to happen and it's not something I've seen much of at all in this sector. The content of the Pizza Pizza presentations, filings and conference calls are laughable really in terms of detail.
I can understand, though, why they may not be keen to put their strategy and stats on the table for all to see, but even Restaurant Brands gives you average order size and traffic volumes, even down to times of day.
As it stands, I am not learning much from current disclosures. I can't really place a lot of weight on things like Renegade Chicken, menu price increases or improved digital offerings because I've got no handle on the impact. I'm having to make investment decisions mainly on the macro-environment and that's not ideal for me.
flamingogold wrote: I won't say that I totally disagree with a share price above $15. Despite all the damage from covid, what it did do is fast track SRV to the digital age.
While there's plenty of room for improvement, they have an app now that can readily accept your order either for pick up or delivery. While I prefer to dine indoors, during covid this was not an option. I tried the app (albeit with some head scratching after that gawdy landing page), and got'r done. Second visit order was easy peasy.
But, I bring up the app for an even bigger reason. Thanks to covid (if it's possible to even say that) you can order beer and wine now with ease for take-out/delivery and the fund gets a cut from alcohol sales, which, if I'm not mistaken, not all restos offer.
Finally, there is the successful Renegade Chicken brand in the wings (no pun intended) that could be deployed at any time....imagine possibly even on a franchise basis! What would the stock be worth then?
Covid has turned a lot of things upside down so I wouldn't rule out anything.
BlueJay2020 wrote: I'd love to agree with your logic and I'd love you to be correct in 2022, but unfortunately I can't!
Which restaurants closed, and are they close to one of our restaurants and where they direct competitors? I don't know the answer to that.
There are too many other variables at play, including how big the overall restaurant pie is, not just how big a slice SRV gets. The pie is not how many restaurants there are, it's how much traffic there is in total and how much the traffic is willing/able to pay.
Then there is the other investing factor on the value investors place on the diistribution stream, which is inherently risk adjusted in terms of the earnings multiple investors are willing to pay. At $17 the earnings multiple was around 13.5, and right now it's under 10. That illustrates the increased risk that investors (rightly) see compared to pre-COVID.
Look, I can see us justifiably getting to $13. I can even stretch to $15 if all goes well. But $19 is a bridge too far from here at the moment for me! :)
Tommy123 wrote: If around 10% of competitors of Sir went under during Covid, then we should see dividends roughtly 10% above the pre-covid amount. So, as you mentioned, it was around $17. Therefore, we should see around $19 a share next year IMO.