Further to my TNSH listing ideaI put that together pretty quickly and did not have tome to fully flesh it out,and still don't, but I thought I should at least mention that the idea of buying back the convert (last traded at $91) was that it would give the broker more fees to entice them to take THTX seriously and because the hope would be that the $200 million share sale of THTX shares following the release of the cancer data (and also following the stock finally reflecting some significant value for the TNSH holding following its listing), would be done at a price higher than the $14.80 conversion value of the convert.
So, my hope would be the listing of TNSH would roughly double the share price of THTX, the redemption of the convert would add further to the share price and then the cancer data would be good enough to really get the stock going, in large part because we would now have the backing of a major US broker to spread the news of that data to a much more welcoming group of now institutional shareholders who are pretty excited about the prospects of THTX's TH-1902.
Now, that all depends on the cnacer data being good. THTX likely already knows quite a bit about that data so they can handicap whether such a bold move makes sense. But the TNSH listing makes sense in almost any scenario and is not reliant on cancer to make it work.
The alternative, and because we have not seen a lot of boldness from THTX in the finance area, most likely scenario, is to simply report out good cancer data and sell enough shares to fund the NASH trial at that time. But I think that process results in a much lower share price because it is less likely to entice a major US broker to get involved with THTX.
My suggestion also counts on that big broker being able to earn very large fees and I don't think THTX gets their attention without paying out some big fees to them. It also assumes that broker feels confident they can place $200 million in TNSH shares. My guess is that broker's confidence about that rises as the fees they could potentially earn rises.
THTX's NASH asset is the result of some tremendous work by the company. Few would have believed they could pull off what they have pulled off in NASH. But the job is not done until the phase III is at least partly financed and taking a bold financial move to match the bold medical moves THTX has already made seems like a good idea. The math works unless THTX does not really believe its NASH asset is somewhat comparable in terms of likely success to IVA and AKRO. Even then the terms I have suggested put it at a significant discount to those two competitors, to say nothing of the huge discount to MDGL.
Get 'er done!