RE:Dividend PredictionsI think you are really close.
I am leaning toward $0.02/month until debt gets down to 1x Net/EBITDA which is basically the Canadian average. That could be done by paying down debt, but I would greatly prefer they fill out their infrastructure and start generating positive returns on those idle assets.
You can either pay down $1 in debt to avoid $0.05 in interest... or put $1 in CAPEX to generate $1 in EBITDA and it services $20 in debt. It's the quickest way to deleverage if you can add production from FCF and don't need to take debt to build plants.
I think we will get back to a monthly dividend once it gets to a material amount, as it encourages more stable ownership. Eliminates the dividend capture crowd that can lead to volatility. $40M/yr is basically immaterial to the company at this point and won't impact capex at all, I would prefer an NCIB with buying only below a floor. That would keep volume on the stock high and it's a bit more tax efficient.