Snow, thanks for the post and articles. Here are my thoughtsGood afternoon, Snow, first you put a great deal of effort into this and I appreciate that.
Next, I think you used a perfect term “contrarian”
The only thing is that I feel….and again just my feeling…is that everything you listed is contrarian.
Now I am not ignorant to all the contrarian thoughts (and there are far more than you have listed) I just have different views on those contrarians.
For instance from your list
-Evergrande (China) – Fears of collapse. Things have not collapsed and there is no indication China will allow a collapse. China allowing a collapse and not coming to the rescue like the US did with the banking crisis IS contrarian. The is no evidence that I see stating the Chinese will allow things to get out of hand. On a side note, I have heard about the Canada Housing bubble for a decade now but who knows…
-Higher unemployment – Point in time reports don’t concern me…there is no evidence suggesting that we are currently in a recession from what I have read. The belief that we could enter a recession is out there and IS contrarian, but I have yet to see trend evidence that suggests this.
-High inflation – COVID has impacted many things including supply chain. Not to mention government programs have made it worthwhile for people to stay home. Decreased labour force increases prices is my general opinion (less production time, less staff, less product, higher prices) companies must maintain certain margin levels…now as government handouts disappear, I expect people will go back to work and this will alleviate lots of pressure on the system and supply chain. Also, with the work from home spending habits temporarily shifted from entertainment to home improvement…those supply chains were unprepared (a historical shift) but that I feel is coming back in line. People are eating out, sporting events, travelling more etc…the economy will come to homeostasis…I believe it is transitory….maybe not a month or two but 1-2 years…I feel permanent inflation IS contrarian…we just don’t have the data to prove it isn’t
-US debt ceiling drama – Fears the democrats and republicans won’t agree…this IS contrarian. Until the default happens. It has not happened.
-Slower manufacturing – Supply was ramped in various industries to accommodate the covid demand shift in industry. I would expect a shift back to pre-covid spend. To say things are slowing down is to say the history was wrong. I feel this IS contrarian….I feel spending will return to normal, people going to bars, restaurants and sporting events and less basement finishing, deck building and home improvement. There is no data to suggest this slowing or what I call shift to normal is negative. Any other suggestion I feel IS contrarian and against history
Great articles though! I enjoyed reading them all. Contrary to what others say you should ensure you see all the angles and views. I don’t mind contrarian I read them all….there are MANY! Some of which called for $50 oil for 2021. Again I just balance what I read with what I believe….but agree contrarians should never be ignored.
I guess the question is who in the media do you trust and what is the real story or truth...what is their angle and what is their motive...
Just like Eric Nutall, media has a motive also...yes tough sometimes to nail down.
Have a great weekend