Stelco Holdings Inc T.STLC

RE:RE:Q1 average is 1300usd

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Ok I see what you are saying now however you are assuming HRc continues to trend down towards their cost to produce.  I believe that is unlikely given the view from fed and the entire world desire to ramp up business after long pandemic.  Who is going to pay these bills.  I think we do get inflation as rates stay lower for longer.  This will spur all commodities include steel which is not like lumber.  Harder to produce steel than lumber.  This industry has had so much trouble for 20+ years that there are now much fewer players left.  Last man standing rule applies and Stelco is positioned well here.  Hard to predict short term price moves bit one has to believe that 36 which is the price largest shareholder recently sold at and shares retired is good entry to buy more.  Even using previous quarter results of 410 ebitda which steel price of 1292 cdn times 4 gives you 1.6 billion for 2022 which is pretty good.  June futures trading at  1530 cdn right now.  1.6 divided by 77 million shares is 21 a share to go along with 27 a share for 2021 gives you $48 for the two years.  Steel stock prices are volatile but any discounting of future cash flows on Stelco gives one a much higher price than where it is trading now.  Only a recession scenario would make this sink.