RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Sobering statistics in oncology trialsPaul's track record on misleading investors about potential share offerings is not good. He is stating flat out that they will push forward with the NASH phase III. He articulated in his most recent presentation that they were looking for alternative forms of financing. That could be a lot of things but most alternatives are not likely to be optimal solutions or they would have looked there first. That could mean they come back to selling shares via the ATM, after the Cantor conference and a Cantor report singing the company's praises with the hope of pushing the share price higher, but rasing $50 million no matter what the price might be at the time because "there is no time to waste" (my presumed justification under this scenario in getting the trial started.
But if partners are not interested, and THTX management thinks the market will not buy the $500 million valuation I ahve suggested in my spin-off scenario, why should we as current shareholders want to see ourselves diluted for something no one else is interested in????
qwerty22 wrote: I think we see a company that believes in the value of a NASH Ph3 and is looking for ways to make that happen while mitigating risk given their limited resources. I think that's articulated as a search for a partner at the moment but I hope it really means they are really exploring a multitude of options (including the one's highlighted by you and Wino) to see which is best. Given our discussion on that subject I'm now trying to think of "partner" in the widest possible way and from that perspective it seems more doable
I think they've been honest in signaling that the go-it-alone option doesn't work at the moment. Articulating what WILL BE the path they take is much more difficult.
SPCEO1 wrote: That is the problem with investing - if you wait until your conclusions are proven, there usually is no opportunity left to make a profit as others who were willing to make a bet on their analysis of a situation got those profits, and yes, sometimes losses too.
I am curious what the "more than hope" is that you have on a NASH partnership? I am only seeing evidence of a company looking for an alternative to a partnership.
palinc2000 wrote: You are drawing unproven conclusion imo...Setting yourself up for big disappoinment....
I have very minimal expectations for oncology and greater expectations for Nah,,
This explains why I dont lose any sleep on the current SP which as you point out in your weekly report card has had nice% appreciation in the last year,,
I still believe that increased revenues from the legacy drugs will provide as least as good price appreciation in the next year but probably much better .Nash partnering on not too bad terms is another possibility based on more than hope
SPCEO1 wrote: I suspect the fact the trial appears to be still ongoing mitigates the risk of problems related to the overaccumulation in healthy cells expressing sortilin. We are probably in the clear on that risk.
jeffm34 wrote: it has a couple things going for it which will increase the odds of success greatly. They are using Docetaxel which already works and is approved. It doesn't even have to be more effective than Docetaxel alone. If it's only just as effective but at a lower dose meaning less side effects then it will still be approved. The only wild card is over accumulation in healthy cells expressing sortilin.
palinc2000 wrote: Very low [3.8%] success rate.....I fail to see any known hard facts in our own Phase 1 apart that it is still ongoing and dosing levels have increased but to unknown levels.What dont I get? Would love to get excited but I see nothing except hope
https://www.acsh.org/news/2020/06/11/clinical-trial-success-rates-phase-and-therapeutic-area-14845