ARC Resources Ltd T.ARX

RE:In Real Dollars ARC looks Good!

[uncutgems]

why do you keep comparing ARX to TOU?

without mentioning that TOU has been the better stock to own over the last 3mo 6m 1y 3y 5y and 10y years?

and ARX chopped their dividend twice while tou raised thiers 7 times?

and fail to mention that ARX has BILLIONS in debt and TOU has ZERO in debt?

and fail to mention that ARX doubled their sharecount and tou kept their stable?

that KAKWA wells are the most expensive wells in North America?

that TOU has a 5 year plan and ARX does not even have a one year plan?

that ARX fired their CEO and CFO while TOU is run by a genius?

sorry you bet on the wrong PONY and have a bad bad case of

TOURMALINE ENVY

MyHoneyPot wrote:
Q2 Actual TOU Numbers

Last quater in total TOU produced 35,524 boe of oil and condensate with a total production of about 410,339 boe. 

So for every 1000 boe of Prodution TOU would produce, 86 boe of oil/condensate

Combine ARC Forcast

Now if we look at ARC resouces they will produce 87,000 boe a day with a total production of about 350,0000 boe.

So for every 1000 boe of Production ARX will produce  249 boe of oil/condensate 

Prices for Analysis using current Prices

Gas AECO spot on Sept 28 is 3.40 condensate is 76.85 U.S. or about 97.50 canadian

Prices Spet 28

BOE Comparsion (ARC produces 3X oil and Condensate as TOU on a boe basis)

So for every boe of production ARC would produce $24.27 worth of oil/condy and TOU would produce $8.35 of oil and condensate. 

So every boe produce by ARC is worth $15.92 more than a boe in terms of oil and condensate then a boe produced by TOU this uses actual Q2 numbers. 

For Example
If you average price for gas is 3.40 AECO spot then a boe of gas is worth $20.40 + $8.35 condensate value = 28.75/boe. 

If ARX produces 350,000 boe and each barrel has a value of $15.92 more and gas is selling at $20.40 a boe pluse $8.35 for oil/condy. This esentially means that for every boe ARC produces it is worth about 1.55 boe's of TOU production. 

350,000 *1.55 = 543,808 boe of TOU equalivent gas production daily. 

Back of the napkin caculation, 3.40 AECO is a good local number, and condensate is alberta is spot price. Higher cost are associated with liquids production.  

In my humble honeypot opinion, outside of other balance sheet considerations, i believe ARC has a better production profile than TOU.

This analysis does not take into account hedging and Condensate is trading at a very good number but you get the idea here i hope..

IMHO