RE:RE:300H Under the Mountaintop AnomalyCountrygent wrote:
Doug:
I wonder given the massive tonnages involved and pit design constraints how many of those ounces are discounted to close to zero NPV.
The last workup I did showed a good NPV and IRR result. I used a $1B investment to build out the mine, 17 year mine life at 400,000 oz. Au per year (no other minerals) from the open pit only - total of 6.8 million oz. Au produced life-of-mine, just the highest grade 50% of the ore averaging 1g/t or better. I took the first five years of development up front for the $1 B investment with no revenue during that time. Price of gold $1,250/oz. IRR was just over 20% and when it went too low in year 18 due to cost inflation and no increase in the POG (I figured 10% annually for cost increases) I shut down the mine. I see several posts showing a value for TUO stock in the $7 range and I agree with that. Between value of gold in the ground, for which I use $65/oz. for the open pit gold, and the NSR over my life-of-mine estimate, I think that's where it comes out. When a deal happens the stock price will reflect the value in the deal.
A quick note on the POG in the ground. At the current POG in the NPV/IRR calculations $100/oz. in the ground does not give me a good enough argument to pull the trigger. $65/oz. is fine and easily justifies a stock value of $7/share for TUO. At $100/oz. I'm looking more at $10/share for TUO or $600 million market cap fully diluted. That values all of Goldstorm at $3 Billion, which could well happen after more drilling results or an increase in POG, or such a big increase in the stock prices of the majors that they could afford to buy at that price with stock, which is the kind of deal I expect to see.
That said, there are now so many wild cards on the table that the situation could further improve at any time. POG is too low. Equity and crypto market prices are too high. Dollar is too high. Artificial Fed activity is way too high. Fiscal policy in the U. S. is an open sewer.
Seabridge test holes for the MTT hitting mineralization up by the portal could do it. The portal is 3.5km northeast of Orpiment/Goldstorm, just where you might expect to see the next pearl in the Sulphurets string. There is also a massive magnetic anomaly up there by Seabridge sensor #224. Similar to the anomalies that underlie Goldstorm.
Any new discoveries in the area by Eskay or Skeena or any number of companies, and Teuton has properties in the immediate area ready for more option activity.
The activity on the Harry Property over the past year, by itself, is worth a closer look. 269.5g/t Au over two meters, the grab sample of 1,553g/t Au, another at 538g/t Au and then the strong action to option the property to Optimum Ventures (replacing Jayden in the process) definitely caught my eye.
Heck, even some stock analyst somewhere could wake up and realize that Teuton is a rare prospect generator that is actually generating profits in addition to prospects. Teuton's existing profits over the past two years at a P/E of only 20 justifies a higher stock price than what we see today, without any Treaty Creek deal. What a concept. . . .
Do your own DD. GLTA. Doug.