a response on the village to our friend Re: $50 @ $50
PP:
I feel like I'm Hoss (the Debbie Downer) and you're Joe (the hot headed gunslinger) in Bonanza lol.
Even I, an unrepentant cheerleader for VET, don't believe we'll ever get back to the $50s. That would require a multiple of at least 8x. And yes, it used to be as high as 10x, at times. I just don't think that's possible anymore with universities and national pension plans of anti-carbon governments reducing their investments (in some cases to $0).
However, once FCF has despatched the "dragon" (as I call it) by somempoi t in Q2 next year, we will be cash flowing around $6/sh., FCF of $3-4/sh. Strap a short term 4x multiple and one can certainly see why the less-uninformed and less-"purist" generalists might be starting to nibble. Put a more reasonable 5-6x (for the quality and diversification of its assets coupled to a fortress balance sheet) in 12-18 months and we're well into the low to mid $30s.
Only selling a few so far to manage that pesky black swan...
Regards,
Naamkat