When the current drilling reports, Adumbi pit and its two satellite deposits will have 5 million ounces grading 2.5 gms per ton.

With a recovery of 90%, this is sufficient for 250,000 ounces per year for 15 years pit mine.

As Adumbi is a clone of Kibali both in grade and lithology, we can use Kibali AISC which ABX forecast to be in the $800 to $850 US per ounce.

As this is for Kibali UG and Open Pit mining combined, I will use $800 US per ounce as the AISC.


Input Parameters ( all values in USD )


Mine Life......15 years

Processing Capacity......................3.5 million tons per year

Initial Capex...........................$400 million

Sustaining Capital...................$375 million ( $25 m per year )

Al in Sustaining Costs .........................$800 per ounce ( same as Kibali )

long trem POG................................$1500

Annual Free Cash Flows

250,000 ounces X $1500  minus $800    = $ 175  million per year.

Initial Capex Payback...........................2.5 years

LOM total free cash flows ...........................$2.6 

Net future asset value = $ 2.6 billion minus $400 million minus $375 million = $ 1.83 billion

In the formal PEA, the Net Present Value ( NPV ) will be discounted for future execution risk.

8 % seems to be the average risk discount ie NPV 8.

The NPV 8 using the above parameters is just over $1.0 billion US which is about $1.3 billion in CAD.

85 % of this is net to Loncor which is about  $1.05 billion CAD or about $ $8 CAD per share price.

This is of course only for Adumbi open pit mining.

We already know grades are much higher below the pit floor of 500 m and that drilling is currentky near 700 m and open at strike and depth .

Then there is the rest of theses massive tenements which in my view will far outweigh Adumbi when all is said and done..