Aleafia Health Inc ALEAF

One thing I've noticed

[Toweringmars]

It seems like the US MSO's are trading at a much higher multiple than their Canadian peers. It could be said that the prospects are brighter, or that some of their teir 1 operators are generating positive EBITDA. But certainly both of those are attributable to having a larger more underserved market. More states are opening up both medically and recreationally, and it would seem like legalization at the federal level is inevitable. I would almost bet the process starts before the new year, considering the SAFE act is on its way through the process. 

Now sure, having a dance partner for the big event is nice, but not something privvy to the small and mid teir Canadian players, we simply arent in a position to joust with the big boys piggy banks.

But...

With legalization comes the export/import market. 

Surely the new landscape in the US is not going to showcase its current form, which is (due to lack of legalization on the federal level) to have growing operations in every state you sell, as it cannot cross state lines. Will the new and current operators want ten-twenty different small to mid sized grow sites across the country?? Doubt it. And what becomes of the current states that dont allow sales and have no infrastructure built?? Operators are having a hard time keeping the shelves stocked in some of the more prominent states as it is. I remember Liberty Health (pre-buyout) couldnt supply enough product to keep the shelves stocked in Florida, and they had some decent sized facilities there, I want to say like 300,000sf.

This is going to open up the market in a big way, and even provide some of that needed market share for the 'ankle-biters' of the Canadian market. Certainly those with operations scaled to fuel exports. And if im not mistaken, our outdoor operations are still one of THE lowest cost productions in North America. We'd be able to compete with their flower/2.0 offerings even with the cost of export.

The market is entierly oversold right now, and I dont think thats by accident.
The spring is being loaded. Shares are being collected by someone... And we're prepping for another run, only this time the gains will be more IMO than the Feb jump.

Pretty good timing for a company ramping up sales QoQ with a monster harvest.