RE:Guyana vs VenezeulaBrian09 wrote: I must say that the Guyana property is the future of a very good company if nothing happens. This company is amongst the best of the ones I want. If there is a correction I would like to know when the buy point would be approaching that would discount Guyana. gcm is run by very good people and they would find a replacement at some point.
Now what is GCM worth IF they lose their interests in Guyana? Putin stole my money in Ukraine as did the Tunisian government. I am very wary of these things now.
I am wary too Brian,
But that is a very big IF. Venezuela is claiming the bulk of Guyana and has been since 1841. It's hard to imagine the arbitrators whether the ICJ or UN siding with Venezuela 180 years into the dispute and effectively destroying Guyana by handing it to basket-case Venezuela. The fact that both Nicols Maduro and opposition leader Juan Guaid agree that the teritory belongs to Venezuela is a given, and I would think largely irrelevant.
Recent oil finds seem to be bringing the issue to a head. It would be great to see it resolved for good.
But it could be resolved for bad IF the international arbitrators go insane, or Venezuela launches a successful military operation that is allowed to stand. GCM would still have a PE under 2 at the current stock price. So you could argue that at least some of this kind of worst case uncertainty is baked in. I'm sure that you'd see some drop in the SP for a time. But this kind of craziness could bump up the price of gold.