Nevada Copper Corp NEVDQ

RE:RE:RE:RE:Cooper at 4.38 this morning

[Notgnu]

And that is why (in my twisted mind) we should be trading at $4.00 already today.

And so that is also why I think some good news on the long term loan extension will be very positive, and then add to that some more good news on the production ramp up aand we could easily see $2.50 to $4.50 by New Year... (and with high copper prices and a lot of interest in NCU by then the $7.50 bsaed free trip could still kick in :)))

Notgnu wrote: Don't forget there is a lot more ore down there than 13 years worth. There is another 19 years worth at (memory again) about 1.2% grade but this is after all the mine is already built and amortized. Add to that there is a lot of room for more drilling from underground once cash comes in. This will undoubtably add more resource and likely increase some of the grade.

So again, roget the dang open pit for now and throw it in for free if you want. Use a 6X multiple for giggles and use the 5,000 tpd instead of the 6,500

Get 5,000 tpd X 365 days per year X (call it) 1.5% copper (for over 35 years) X 2,000 pounds per ton X .9 recovery X $2.50 (the ecess of copper price over cost to mine and process etc...all the costs) X 6X multiple (only... because that is quite low) divided by shares out (185 million) 

===> $4.00 share price (with no open pit)

N

Notgnu wrote: Sorry, mistake... the combined open pit and underground, a few years from now, is probably 280 million pounds per year not 220 million.

N

Notgnu wrote:

The numbers we get are, of course, about the variables (assumptions) that we put in place.

Going by memory, from the 43-101, the first 13 years underground grade is an average of about 1.75%. You can see this starting to play out with the "sugar cube" zone that we will soon mine being about 2.5% and the current stopes being about 1.5%. 

The thing to realize is that we are building lateral access and declines and that these go through some waste rock and some low grade ore. Think of it like building a huge parkade underground. You need a huge spiraling road to go up or down and some long access ways to get to all the spots to park, or (ore) in this case...stopes. 

This low grade material has been mixed into the ore and run through the mill thus lowering the average percentage to about 0.5%. This will be less of a factor soon and the mine will process the targetted (calculated) grades soon.

Let's assume the 1.75% 

At 3,000 tons per day X 30 days X 2,000 pounds in a ton X 1.75% copper X 90% of it recovered we get 2,835,000 pounds of copper per month. Times that by an additional 10 cents and get $283,500 per month or $3,402,000 per year. 

For the share price it depends on the multiple to cash flow that you want to use. At 8X this gives 8 X $3,402,000 divided by shares out of 185 million ===>> 14 cents per share increase (or 7cents per share increase at a miserly 4X) ... but of course the market is the market sooo???

Of course the numbers nearly double at 5,000 tpd and more than double at 6,500 tpd.

Long term down the road the effect on the open pit is massive. The combined open pit and underground will be producing 220,000,000 pounds per month and that is why the NAV (net asset value which is about $3 billion now) changes so much according to the copper price long term assumption. 

Cheers,

N.

 

Newstock44 wrote: If we get to 3000 tpd what would 10 cents more for copper do to the profit of NCU. nGU you are good with them numbers. My guess $3.7 million or 2 cents a share let me know what you think. Cheers to all happy Thanksgiving Holiday Monday NS