GREY:NEVDQ - Post by User
Comment by
bogfiton Oct 12, 2021 2:23pm
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Post# 33998188
RE:RE:Quinn : thanks for the insight- that
RE:RE:Quinn : thanks for the insight- that"The Commodity Super-Cycle"
I jumped at the opportunity to learn something new, and not sure I did. I read a couple pieces about a possible commodity super-cycle as a function of supply/demand
"What is a commodities supercycle?
At its most basic, a supercycle is a prolonged trend upwards in commodity prices across the board, most commonly caused by a structural change in global demand.
When have they happened previously?
The most recent example was in the early 2000s with the arrival of China as a global player investing in tech and infrastructure. Prior to that, the best examples were in the late 19th century (following industrialisation of the US) and in the 1950s, postwar.
What has caused them in the past?
SS's view is that they tend to occur in periods of very low interest rates when there are also fears of imminent inflation. Long periods of underinvestment in infrastructure, such as mining or oil exploration, when met by an economic boom, as in the recovery period of the 2000s, can also produce a supercycle as demand outstrips supply.
Our softs trader agrees that the driving force for any price rise is classic demand/supply economics: where supply is low and demand is high, prices are likely to rise."
-Steven Spencer, Senior Managing Partner at SMB Capital Management
The commodity supercycle - fact or fiction? - Lexology
It seems from what I read that technology has played a much larger role in promoting CSC's than demographics, however the very concept of a broad rise in prices across all energy and basic materials is nothing more or less than price inflation, and that is often a function of fiat currency.
Personally, finding us faced with a world-wide pandemic for the first time, and the prospects of rendering vast areas of the Earth uninhabitable, for me precedence wanes it applicability.
b.