RE:RE:RE:RE:Research Capital: Take a pass on Profound MedicalSince we own 100% of our equipment that we install, the more equipment installed means more depreciation over the next 5+ years.
The net loss won't mean much in that situation so we'll need to watch EBITDA for growth and we'll need to keep an eye on cashflow.
If we partner-up in other geographies (outside USA) maybe our partners can spend some money to do the same and we can be paid a royalty. That would help.
Just a few additional thoughts.
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HomerAndCompany wrote: Yes, losses are running in the $7-8 million per quarter now. Expenses are rising as sales and staff increase. But with exponential increases in revenue currently and for many quarters to come, we should have the losses coming down even as expenses rise.Cash was $73.8 million in the last report and I believe that revenues will rise fast enough for that to see us through to profitability.
We can afford to and may need to double our current
expenses to make this exponential revenue growth happen. But we can't afford to and don't need to double our
losses - as that would burn through the cash and require a stock issuance that would hurt current share holders. They are making the right moves - doubling sales and installation teams, getting the revenue numbers, especially non-capital recurring way up.
-GLTA!
MrMugsy wrote: What are we losing right now? $7-8M per quarter?
As we ramp up we're going to have one-time costs to get new locations set-up along with paying for the equipment at those locations. I think PRN is also working on ramping up sales staff to accomodate future growth.
Let's double our present losses for the next frew years for the above mentioned ramping up
1. TULSA sales
2. bringing Sonalleve to the USA
3. costs for ongoing work/studies (both Sonalleve and TULSA) including clinical work in Germany
4. upgrades to our hardware/software.
5. not sure if they are working on developing a 2-in-1 TULSA/Sonalleve yet but I'd bet on that.
Ramping up to $16M per quarter ... we're potentially looking at $64M at peak losses.
By then we're likely developing flexible end-tools to deal with colon cancer - or - paying for further Sonalleve development for outside/in cancer treatments.
Are we also ramping up in other geographies by then - beyond the USA?
I have no clue what the strategy will look like but there are many ways for them to spend the money if they really want to. Then again, there are ways to reduce costs if they really wanted to. I'm betting on rapid growth to make us look exciting sooner (rather than later) and make us a takeover target within the next 5-10 years.
IMO only.
HomerAndCompany wrote:
I took another look at Andre Uddin's analysis and I found this part surprising:
Uddin projects "revenues of $16.1 million in 2021, then more than doubling to a projected $33.8 million for 2022, $47.9 million for 2023, $63.8 million in 2024, then climbing to $71.4 million for 2025, which is also the first year Uddin forecasts positive values for earnings per share and cash flow per share"
He sees exponential revenue growth for 2021 and 2022 with respectable growth thereafter (though despite "Uddin noting that the (CPT-1) code becoming effective in January 2024 would significantly accelerate TULSA-PRO’s sales growth." he doesn't show anything like exponential growth resulting). Profound's projections for new installations should mean exponential growth through 2021 & 2022 if not beyond.
What surprises me is that Uddin sees negative earnings even as revenue climbs over $60 million in his 2024 projection. I'd expect that a growing percentage of the revenue increases would be high margin recurring revenue with much of it going to the bottom line.
For example the $2.6 million revenue in Q2 corresponds to $10.4 million revenue annualized with a $28.560 million annualized loss. All other things being equal, if you add $50 million in very high margin revenue you might expect to cover that $28.560 deficit and then some. Of course all other things are never quite equal - doubling sales and installation teams will increase expenses.
Does anyone have a better understanding of Uddin's forecast? Does anyone out there know how PRN would gernerate a loss with over $60 million in revenue?
-TIA!