Moon, NCIB, Buyback, Dividend & DebtNo problem Moon, when I get bored I crunch numbers....this is what I have in my head as something that would be good to see....a good balance of debt, buyback and dividend for 2022.
If they adopt the 50/50 rule (50% shareholder returns as others are)
Note this is using an assumption of < $70 oil.....
Higher oil you can buyback more or increase dividend or reduce detb further...I like a balanced approach...this will eliminate 6% of the float allow a $0.20/year dividend and get debt at the lowest point in their target
ALL with Oil BELOW $70 | Month | % Month | Share Cancelled | SP$ | FCF Buyback
Amount | Dividend/Sh/Qtr | FCF Dividend
Amount | Combined FCF Usage | FCF for Debt | Debt Balance |
| Jan | 0.75% | 4,245,000 | $ 4.50 | $ 19,102,500 | | | $ 19,102,500 | $ 20,833,000 | $ 1,229,167,000 |
| Feb | 0.75% | 4,245,000 | $ 4.90 | $ 20,800,500 | | | $ 20,800,500 | $ 20,833,000 | $ 1,208,334,000 |
| Mar | 0.75% | 4,245,000 | $ 5.30 | $ 22,498,500 | | | $ 22,498,500 | $ 20,833,000 | $ 1,187,501,000 |
| Apr | 0.75% | 4,245,000 | $ 5.70 | $ 24,196,500 | | | $ 24,196,500 | $ 20,833,000 | $ 1,166,668,000 |
| May | 0.75% | 4,245,000 | $ 6.10 | $ 25,894,500 | | | $ 25,894,500 | $ 20,833,000 | $ 1,145,835,000 |
| Jun | 0.75% | 4,245,000 | $ 6.50 | $ 27,592,500 | | | $ 27,592,500 | $ 20,833,000 | $ 1,125,002,000 |
| Jul | 0.25% | 1,415,000 | $ 6.85 | $ 9,692,750 | $ 0.05 | 27,400,000 | $ 37,092,750 | $ 20,833,000 | $ 1,104,169,000 |
| Aug | 0.25% | 1,415,000 | $ 7.20 | $ 10,188,000 | | | $ 10,188,000 | $ 20,833,000 | $ 1,083,336,000 |
| Sep | 0.25% | 1,415,000 | $ 7.50 | $ 10,612,500 | | | $ 10,612,500 | $ 20,833,000 | $ 1,062,503,000 |
| Oct | 0.25% | 1,415,000 | $ 7.80 | $ 11,037,000 | $ 0.05 | 27,400,000 | $ 38,437,000 | $ 20,833,000 | $ 1,041,670,000 |
| Nov | 0.25% | 1,415,000 | $ 8.15 | $ 11,532,250 | | | $ 11,532,250 | $ 20,833,000 | $ 1,020,837,000 |
| Dec | 0.25% | 1,415,000 | $ 8.50 | $ 12,027,500 | | | $ 12,027,500 | $ 20,833,000 | $ 1,000,004,000 |
| Year | 6.00% | 33,960,000 | | $ 205,175,000 | | 54,800,000 | $ 259,975,000 | $ 259,975,000 | |
| | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | $ 519,950,000 | Total 2022 FCF | |