RE:RE:Kawa-1. What is a good result? Where are you pulling 60% chance for a duster from? The McDaniel report had a 51% CoS at highest for all prospects CGX has, and I would guess Kawa is targetting something close to that.
furthermore there's 3 targets, which the geo's here say are uncorrelated. So even if we gave 50% to primary target and just 20% to other 2, we get to about a 2/3 shot of success.
Certainly could still end up dry, but the odds are reported better than 40%.