RE:$50? Good morning Moon, take a look at this little analysis comparing 2013 and 2021 share price, float and production including FX. You will see all things being equal (which we know sentiment as JD explained is still somewhat negative due to ESG) with consistent quarterly results and comfort I come back to $12.77. Now that is NOT my short term target I feel more $6.50 Q2 2022 and $8.50 Q4 2023...but if pricing stays consistent for 4-6 quarters yes I think it gets there...above that will be driven by Clearwater.
Just my opinion
"While it is VERY difficult to compare 2013 to today...a couple of high level metrics. 2013 Market Cap was $5.1 Billion vs Today $1.9 Billion. Now some say yes but oil was $100 BUT F/X was inverted @ 1.06 so Oil was $94 CDN today Oil is $95 CDN (A GAIN FROM 2013). Production back then was 57k versus today 80K (A GAIN FROM 2013). So that leaves the debt change which one could argue at these prices a non-issue. While a basic analysis shows my upside target."
| | 29-Dec-13 | 27-Sep-21 | |
| Share Price | $ 41.06 | $ 3.42 | |
| Shares O/S | 125.392 | 564.11 | Million |
| Market Cap | $ 5,149 | $ 1,929 | Million |
| | | | |
| Oil Price (USD$) | $ 100.32 | $ 75.45 | |
| F/X | $ 1.065 | $ 0.790 | |
| Oil Price (CAD$) | $ 94.20 | $ 95.51 | |
| | | | |
| Production (boe/d) | 57,196 | 80,000 | |
| | | | |
| Share Out Factor | | 4.50 | (564/125) |
| Share Price adjusted down for share count chg | | $ 9.13 | $41.06/4.5 |
| Increased Production Factor | | 39.9% | (57 -> 80) |
| Share Price adjusted up for increased production | | $ 12.77 | $9.13*1.399 |
| | | | |
| Long-term Debt | 460 | 1,500 | Million
|
MooninPaPa wrote: What made this a $50 stock?
Were there less shares?
FCF really high at the time?
BPD were higher?
Could this happen again?
Many things I don't understand and this is one of them....