RE:Nothing has changed about this play yetOver analysis? What is happening now is the integration of old information with new information. You're statement implies that no new information is coming in.
Like detectives putting an old murder case in the cold case file. Yes all of that information is known. But what relevance do they attach to it? As an analogy say a bloody cloth found at the crime scene in 1981 has some relevance but not enough to identify the killer. Along come technology that allows detectives to analyze DNA and a database full of DNA information from known criminals. They find a match and identify the killer.
Dragonfly must have anticipated your sentiment because he posted a timeline of advances in earth science yesterday. The most recent advances have been impressive. They are now able to integrate known information with new information in ways never done before. It has been very effective. Look at Exxon, Apache etc. Dragonfly isn't over analyzing in the sense that he is interpreting a given, fixed set of information going over it in many iterations interpretating the "same old" in different ways. He is integrating new information into the old set of information and iterating and I am following his process along because I find it fascinating.
Also very useful. Now we know from the Halliburton modelling done by Yallup & Scotchman in 2018 where they reprocessed old seismic data using new techniques that the Canje source kitchen where kerogene is cooked into oil underlies Kawa. We know that to this day new oil is still being cooked up in to source kitchen. We know that because of this seal quality doesn't have to be top notch in order to form a trap. We know that because the oil has been created relatively recently that it is highly unlikely that aerobic bacteria would have degraded it into heavy oil in the Cretaceous.
So the oil is still being cooked up under Kawa and it is migrating upwards to be caught in traps where previously cooked up oil has already been collected. Dragonfly is trying to identify where those traps are integrating new publically released information with old information. I'm not going to discount his attempts because new information is really starting to flow in now.
For example, what if they take a 15.0 ppg kick in the Campanian? Does that derisk the Santonian below because the Santonian is feeding the Campanian via a vertical fault because old information indicates that a fault may be there? But it's not clear if there is one or not. So what does an investor do on a 15.0 ppg kick in the Campanian? Does it mean that the Santonian below has a 90% chance of being charged up with oil when old information is factored in? Everybody will be running to Dragonfly to get his analysis.