RE:RE:RE:Nothing has changed about this play yetYes you're right. I understand. All I am saying is this: Someone tells you the radius of a circle. You have two pieces of information - the radius and the fact that it's a circle. The purpose of logic is to deduce new information from existing information. From the radius you can deduce the circle's area and circumference.
That's what dragonfly is doing. As one bit on new information comes in he can deduce much more information using his knowledge of earth science. All of life is a probability calculation. The great Scottish physicist James Clerk Maxwell said " The true logic of this world is in the calculus of probabilties." So yes you're right. There is no 100% certainty of a find. There is also no 100% of a dry hole either. So we're back to probabilties. How investors calculate the probability is reflected in the share price.
I see the current share price as reflecting investor calculus of a high probability of a find. In its current financial state if CGX were spending tens of millions of dollars drilling for hundreds of millions of barrels of oil in the depleted Cardium formation in Central Alberta CGX would be delisted very soon.