RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:SELL, GET OUT!Price is more a function of spot TC. When TC were $ 300, price was excess of 2.6 in anticipation that GC would have to release a significant dividend. Then Covid happened and the market makers shorted all refiners anticipating supply disruptions to mines.
Now we have refinery energy disruptions with many refiners around the world being curtailed due to electricity cost. China is forcing price restrictions on coal, so may keep price down but no supply. Not sure what India will do, but both countries, the largest zinc markets, are under electricity price pressure.
No doubt that NIF has a huge discount due to the current GC ownership. Though replacement cost of mill is well over 1 B$ now, no one ever expects to receive this. Xystra in the past was willing to pay almost $ 4 per share (granted, maybe to escape high dividend payment as well as pick up cheap plant). There has been substantial investment in the plant since the Xystra offer, almost double current stock price.
If the Eurpoean mills can't compete on eletrical cost, then I expect the value of NIF to increase significantly. I also wonder if China mills will be as competitive with full energy costing. All though it appears at times that GC has total control over pricing, they still have to base pricing issues off of market conditions.
This price action is typical of larger speculators getting in. Initial price run, then shorts bringing price down near term followed by significant jump, like double, on some future news. I expect future news won't really happen until next spring, though I expect a lot of pressure on TC during negotiations (probably back to 300, maybe more).
You may get your 90 cents, but I believe support will be 1.2 before blast off.
Most mills should be topped up on concentrate soon. Once contracts are completed, refiners may not be interested in adding any more concentrate, especially at todays price. We should shortly be in refinery fairy land, excess concentrate with high zinc prices.
You will have to be patient and as always with Noranda, they are working with concentrate sourced the previous quarter, GC has special premiums charged to NIF...