RE:ShortsHi Gents,
Simply for me company value says just about all, BIR at a P/E ratio of around 20 is simply too high and until that comes down considerably thru debt retirement etc. BIR on tech will have a tough time reaching to the lofty heights expected as investors, unhedged or not.
For me i jumped ship with boat full of cash after a 2 1/2 year wait, average, smoke and drink periodically and play the buy sell game, a bit early on some of it just under $5 from $2.25 average but flowed substancial profit capital into SDE between $3.50 and $4 (3.70 aveagbe) instead. It continues to be a completely undervalued company with a P/E ratio of just over 5 even after the Velvet buyout and taking on associated debt after being debt free prior to acquisitions. Already I have a nice paper return to date besides some swing trades to boot.
It won't be long SDE will be pumping out 15% more NG (hedges all gone come March) than BIR per day and with the company producing 33% of it's revenue from sweet light crude to BIR's almost non-existant sweet crude production, it was a no brainer for me. Oil will continue to climb NG who knows for sure re: CME futures, the story has been production/storage concerns but seems to me they have had no problem filling storage the last few weeks with the mild NA fall, now just slightly below the 5 year average with injections still to come.
Someone said to me on the board it was BIR's turn now SDE not for another year and a half well the gap is close now price wise and I believe on fundy BIR will continue to struggle same time frame percentage wise with lower appreciation thru to spring than SDE with a 3rd of it's production coming from that sweet crude.
However for some this is what they make smoking and drinking for (me too sometimes), lol.
On tech BIR looks to test the 200 day at $6, $5.75 area good support if it tests, IF on the outside chance they crater to the 5.25 area on short pressure before winter rears it's head then I'm back in with a smaller position assuming significant additional debt is in theory is reduced come yearend (of course if they don't do anything else stupid in the meantime lol).
Reasonable future targets (don't really have any already acheived the $7.25 area I suggested it could see) lofty could see $9.25 area
I'll revisit that thought come MayJune, and take lumps if not lol.
SDE, currently could test $5.50 area could also retest the 5-5.25 area if things got really ugly, future targets next first half year exit winter $8 reasonable expectation, lofty could see $11.25 area.
That's my take for now, time for a lunchtime cocktail, cheers.