Johnwith30years wrote: Hi Bossu. Please double check your figures against the actual Altagas quarterly reports as you just claimed my assumption about reaching $2.00 for the year would not be met - however you then said Q1 was 1.20 in normalized earnings - No it was $1.29 and then the second quarter was .08 so we have $1.37 in ther bag already. Now in q3 last year thery earned .04 so I hypothesized a modest 12% increase to bring this quarter to .0448 - I think it will actually be much stronger and then added 12% to the earnings of 4th quarter 2020 which was .53 cents so at 12% gain we get 59.36 cents If you add all that together it comes to 1.37 plus .0448 plus .5936 = $2.0084
or round it to $2.00. I would just point out that year over year they increasesd earnings in the first quarter by 63% - If they did the same in their 4th quarter leaving the third quarter at a modest .0448 then 53 cents from 4th quarter last years' times 1.63 = .8639 Added all together that
becomes $2.2787 for the full year in earnings ! Now they mentioned an accounting charge they have to deduct from some blend and extend arrangements signed in 2018 due thi syear so I don't knwo the effec tof that but you can see from the above
that $2.00 for the full year is actually quite plausible - which is why many analysts 12 months targets are up around the $30 range. GL Johnwith30years,
I'm not going to double check my figures.
The only one thing I want to say tis that he Q3 of 2020 was a loss of $47M or 0,17/s and
just delivering a break even or so this year would require a 0,65/sh to reach $ 2,00
So ,for me the Q3 2021 is an indication of what we shoul expect for the year and the fact that ALA has already $ 1,37 in the bag is possible
.
And one think not to forget:
«
AltaGas remains acutely focused on growing EPS and creating earnings durability in the years ahead and is reiterating the company's 2021 increased guidance ranges that were provided in April, 2021, including:
- 2021 normalized EPS guidance is $1.65 to $1.80 per share.
- 2021 normalized EBITDA guidance is $1,475-million to $1,525-million.
So if the Q3 is a break even ALA will need only 0,45 /share to beat their revised guidance and it might be over your $ 2,00 or so per share.
You alll know was a beat mean for the share price.