RE:RE:RE:MacLovinMacLovin wrote: - (and my personal fav) "if they can hold 20%-25% in a mature edibles market they will be more than happy and revenue will be double or triple what it is now". It is simple math that you learnt in high school: if $8,000,000 (Indiva's current quarterly revenue) = 50% market share then the total quarterly edibles market must be $16,000,000 per quarter or $64,000,000 per year. So with 20% market share and revenues tripled that means we expect the quarterly CDN edibles market to grow in the near term to $120,000,000 or $480,000,000 annually. $64,000,000 currently to $480,000,000 in the near term - come on who really believes that ????? (btw - you don't have to be a former Indiva employee or some 'in the know person' to have figured this out as it is just grade 10 math).
Not sure how "
in a mature edibles market" somehow morphs into "in the near term" for you but hey apparently you are calling the shots here so I won't argue.
Anyway, edible percentages in mature markets are in the 15-17% range. Currently in Canada edibles are about 4.5%. So we'll say in a mature market 3x the current percentage on the low end, not taking into account the overall growth of the entire cannabis market in Canada which within 3 years should easily double or more. So
in a mature edibles market combined with what should easily be a doubling of the entire sector we're looking at 6x the current edibles sales.
Still with me? Probably not but I'll continue anyway.
While of course you used my low number of 20%, I'll use my high number of 25% to keep it simple.
Indiva's revenue at half it's current percentage (25% vs the current 50% ) of 6x the edibles sales is indeed 3x the revenue. Even using 20% market share would be more than double current revenue. Not all that complicated and other than you nobody ever said anything about near term. I'd say it's more like grade 5 math but I was always an excellent student.