TSXV:NDVA.H - Post by User
Comment by
nedstar71on Oct 26, 2021 2:11pm
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Post# 34051319
RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:MacLovin
RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:MacLovinMacLovin wrote: ohh sorry - makes sense and 'yes I am still with you'!!!
My investing timeline is more short term 1 to 2 years tops. I am to old to be thinking about 10 years out (estimate for mature market) and find the longer the time horizon the less I care about predictions on sales or share prices. Sorry I should have not assumed everyone had shorter then 10 year investment views on here like myself - that is my mistake and in that case you could be right.
However....still disagree with your numbers strongly and thus your math is still one of my personal favs - you are comparing 'an apple to an orange'. First there is no state where edibles are 20% + of the market as you suggest. And those states that are in the 10% to 15% (and there are only a few as most are sub-10%) are not a good comparison for you to use to evaluate a CDN edibles company as in the US there are no regulations on restrictions on a) units per package, b) type and volume of advertising and c) quantity of THC potency per package.
Canada has those restrictions and it is my believe because of that US edibles sales/market share are not a good comparison to use for a Cdn edibles company.
Just an opinion - but again you are looking 10 years out so who knows where regulations will be then - just a lot of wishing, hoping and finger crossing for myself.
Nowhere did I say or suggest there was a state that was 20%.
California is the highest at 17% I believe, about 5 years into legalization. No, Canada definitely isn't California, but with the overall growth in the cannabis space over the next 5 years in Canada, I don't think its crazy to think edibles can get to 6x current revenues for the space.
I also think the packaging limits in Canada actually help the top line in a big way. Allowing 20 or 30 gummies in a package or higher THC content would hurt volumes and pricing in a big way.