AJX ValuationThe circular docs have provided a little bit more insight about how 2021 is shaping up for the company. An EV/S of 5x is about right in terms of acquisition multiples, and given that we know the fairness opinion was based on 2021, this would suggest total revenue this year of $14.8mm is forecasted which means somewhere in the range of $4mm for Q3 and just under $5mm for Q4. Looking ahead at all the contracts one can conservatively assume that AJX will do about $25-30mm in sales in roughly two years with more growth therafter. Assuming an EV/S of 5x discounted back today at the company's cost of capital of 13.7% then you get the following in terms of valuation at different revenue ranges. The range for each level is dependent on whether you consider cash as part of EV or not, which for a cash burning company like AJX isn't always the case, so the lower number likely applies. All-in all it suggests $1.00 would be a "fair" offer for AJX:
2023 Rev. Estimates
Rev US$20mm: C$0.77 - $0.83
Rev US$25mm: C$0.97 - $1.03
Rev US$30mm: C$1.16 - $1.22
Rev US$35mm: C$1.36 - $1.42