RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Someone wake me up when this is overYa, Canadian Converts oftern have a feateure built in that allows them to be paid in shares upon maturity (at the prevailing shareprice, not the conversion price). It is seen as reputationally damaging to do so. It has been a while since I had looked at the TH 5.75% prospectus and upon review, I have to say I was wrong. In all Dubuc's wisdom he didnt include this feature. FML
SPCEO1 wrote: The way convertibles work is they convert into shares if the stock price is above conversion price, in this case US$14.85, if I remember correctly. If the THTX stock price is below that level then TH has write a check to pay off the US$57.5 million. So, they cannot pay it off with shares under any circumstance.
SABBOBCAT wrote: What people also forget is that the convert can be paid off in shares at the prevaling price, so there isnt a "cliff" that they need to raise for. It is more of a reputational impact for management if they arent able to refinance, but their reputation is terrible so I boubt they GAF.
SPCEO1 wrote: One might think that article, with its focus on the debt situation, might be the work of some shorts on the stock. But there are almost no shorts on THTX. So, it likely a robot written article looking to produce some content for that website. Clearly, the debt issue could quickly become a non-issue if the cancer phase 1a or 1b results look good. Indeed, if those results are impressive, the stock could take off and the debt could become equity via conversion.
It is too early to worry much about the convert needing to be paid off. The worry will grow if there is no evidence of tumor shrinkage in the phase 1a but the phase 1b would be completed before that debt comes due. So, TH could try to wait it out before raising the money to pay off the convert, if necessary. I doubt they would do that but it is a possibility and wold likely depend on how confident they were in efficacy being shown in phase 1b. It is worth remembering the phase 1b will likely be an open label trial too, so they could announce evidence of efficacy well before that trial was completed.
I have to imagine our board would not be as inclined to wait outthose results and might just go ahead and do a sizable offering to cover the convert, the NASH trial and raise a little more for future cancer trials to. So, that is our risk of dilution on the high end which could be reduced by a NASH partnership and perhaps partnership cash coming from China, and maybe even from US or European big pharma looking to have an early position in the SORT1+platformin case it does indeed turn into something quite significant.
jeffm34 wrote: Write ups like this probably don't help.
https://www.google.ca/amp/s/simplywall.st/stocks/ca/pharmaceuticals-biotech/tsx-th/theratechnologies-shares/news/is-theratechnologies-tseth-weighed-on-by-its-debt-load/amp
SPCEO1 wrote: You would never know that TH is possibly on the cusp of a finding that might transform they way some cancers are treated from the snoozefest the stock has become. Low volume, no movement - it's pretty boring even though the story is not boring at all.
Now, while we all take a nap as we wait for things to kick into gear on cancer (and possibly NASH too), we can dream that the addition of Dr. Rothenberg is a leading indicator of rising enthusiasm for TH-1902 among investors. Perhaps he and Paul were really close at Pfizer and he is doing Paul a favor by taking this job and that is all there is to it. But it seems to me you don't take that position unless there is really something important going on.
So, hopefully, something important is going on and soon the stock reflects that. For now, however, no one is paying attention.