RE:Rampant FearUS airports are really busy, Canada airports not as busy as us airports. I just came back from a trip to San Diego, SAN was packed, and YVR was very very not busy compared to precovid. Flew on Air Canada Express direct flight as mentioned previously. Economy section of the plane was packed, Business was half full. However in terms of overall demand I believe aggregate demand wasn't robust enough as our flight was rescheduled from a morning to an afternoon flight. I'm thinking 1 of the flights got cancelled because of not enough demand.
In terms of CPA maintenance and performance bonuses portion of revs, it needs probably international (read Canada - USA) flying to come back first. I say international as many on here mention domestic flights have been busy.
To give you an idea of how bad international was at YVR, got off the plane at YVR, sunday evening around 7pm. Only 1 luggage belt was running, ours. I've never seen it that empty at YVR international terminal arrival side.
In terms of lease revs, I don't expect to see recovery until end of 2022 depending on vaccination situation in SEA where a bulk of the lease revs come from, but the kicker is by then I expect Canadian interest rates to rise slightly, I'm unsure but I think CHR borrows locally for financing the leases to their international customers. This will put them at a competitive disadvantage against the other international aircraft leasing companies, and further disadvantage against the merged Aercap GECAS mega giant leasing company.
I still own no CHR after exiting a position much earlier this year, nor am I planning to start a position in CHR. I don't have a price target for CHR currently, nothing modeled. With cash and liquidity starting to tighten up, I suggest everyone be very picky about the companies or things they choose to invest in as gains won't come as easily, good luck to all.